Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Update on Sub-TS Beryl

Yep, we are at it again just a few days before the start of hurricane season. We have a new tropical-ish system in the Atlantic basis and his name is Beryl. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed off the Carolina coast Friday evening. A "subtropical" storm simply means a storm system with a blend of both tropical (barotropic) and non-tropical (baroclinic) characteristics. One thing that is making this classified as a subtropical system is the lack of a ridge (high pressure) aloft. Instead, we have a upper-level low over the sub-TS - which can be seen on water vapor (see below, via NOAA).

Dry air is attempting to be dragged into the system via the upper low.

Beryl has max sustained winds of 45 mph, with some higher gusts. Because of the environment it is and will be under,  not much intensification is expected. From looking at the GFS, I don't expect this sub-TS to become a TS or a hurricane.

The models are in fair agreement with a North Florida / South Georgia landfall, but as the NHC points out in their last discussion, there is some uncertainty on when Beryl will start to recurve to the northeast and exit back into the Atlantic. A deep trough that is currently in the western U.S. is expected to deamplify and move east. This will be enough to help it kick back to the northeast, but timing and strength is one question that is lacking model consensus.

Regardless, impacts from sub-TS Beryl will not be grand in terms of wind and surge. Florida does need a lot of rain, especially in the northern and central parts (see Keetch Byram Drought Index below, via Florida Dept. of Forestry).

The thing we don't want is too much rain at once. Rip currents will also be a serious threat along the beaches between North Carolina and Central Florida. People going to the beaches this holiday weekend need to be careful and swim near a lifeguard.

More updates will be provided when necessary. I hope you all have a great Memorial Day weekend.

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