Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Sunday, May 27, 2012

Beryl Update

Beryl is looking a lot better than yesterday. In fact, it's no longer a hybrid. Despite that the SPC mesoanalysis is still showing an upper-level low over Beryl, it's been reclassified. Satellite imagery is beginning to go against the mesoanalysis as good outflow away from the center seems to be present. It looks tropical. Water vapor imagery looks a lot better than Saturday as it is showing dry air trying to kick into the system. There are some things that are helping this system develop further: a) it's over the Gulf Stream and b) the shear is still relatively weak. Convection has certainly blown up since my last update Saturday. It's just looking like a better system. This much intensification - up to 65 mph as of the 2 pm EDT advisory - is something I was not really expecting.

Rain bands are already moving into northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. This will continue on and off through the afternoon and through the night. Conditions will continue to deteriorate. The NHC is expecting Beryl to be near the Florida coast at around 8 pm EDT, just offshore of Jacksonville. There seems to be good model consensus of a Duval County landfall later tonight. But bear in mind that the effects of a tropical system are not restricted to the center of circulation. Rain and strong winds will be a primary threat across the Florida/Georgia area.

There is always the possibility of tropical cyclone-induced tornadoes, especially in the northern and right-front quadrant (Georgia and South Carolina). There is also the risk of inland flooding in low-lying and urban areas. Flooding risk would really depend on how slow Beryl moves before it makes its expected turn to the north and northeast.

Swimming and surfing at the beaches for the next couple of days is not recommended as rip currents are at a high risk.

There will likely be a short update tonight. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest: twitter.com/daweathaman.

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