Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Quick Invest 90L Update

Just as I thought, it ended up being a rain maker...sort of. It has rained a lot in the Florida Keys. In fact, Key West received 4.34 inches of rain Sunday, which broke the 1872 record for that day, according to the National Weather Service office in Key West. Doppler total estimates from the western Keys are in the 1-2 inch range, but it dries off once you head north into Miami-Dade County. Doppler total estimates are pretty much in the trace range, with a few spots in southeast Florida getting at least a half-inch.

The system that has caused the mess seems to be deteriorating based on satellite and radar loops.

The RUC sounding profile for the Miami area looks fairly moist, while the 12Z MFL sounding shows precipitable water at a juicy 1.71 inches and a MLCAPE at roughly a 1000 J/kg.

The cold front in northern Florida is expected to continue to push south while the low will move off to the northeast. Though this low has lost some luster, it's still possible to get some shower activity over southeast Florida. If the sun can break through the clouds, it could help destabilize things a bit and fire up a storm or two. KMFL is thinking about lowering the POPs and I see that as reasonable.

The National Hurricane Center has lowered the chances of tropical or sub-tropical development of this system to near 0 percent.

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