Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Florida Severe Threat Update

A tornado watch has been issued by the SPC for parts of the Florida panhandle, south Georgia, and extreme southeastern Alabama until 4 a.m. ET. This watch includes the following Florida cities: Tallahassee, Live Oak, Lake City, and Panama City. The SPC is calling for a moderate threat for tornadoes and damaging winds within and close to the watch.

The line of storms are prompting severe thunderstorm warnings across Florida and Georgia, but I haven't seen any tornado warnings issued recently. That doesn't mean that none would be issued, though.

The latest Tallahassee sounding (0Z / 7 pm ET) indicates somewhat of a curved hodograph, but winds are primarily out of the south instead of southeast. Instability may not be as great as daytime heating has ended, but the moisture at the surface remains high (dewpoints are 60F +). The low-level jet isn't around where the action is (yet).

The surface maps from the HPC are showing a second low-pressure center off to the west of the one over the Florida panhandle (see below) at 7 pm ET.

This system is something that the models are picking up on and have as the main system to help bring good rain chances along with a severe weather risk Sunday across north and central Florida. Not much has changed since the last post as the highest threat seems to be damaging winds. I may make a post tomorrow morning as conditions warrant. Stay tuned.

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