Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

High Risk of Severe Weather Today for the Starkville Area

Good morning, everyone. The early morning hours were pretty wild with a line of storms passing through and near the Golden Triangle area that causing some damage with a possible tornado to our north near Euproa. Unfortunately, this severe weather threat is not over. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of northeastern Mississippi - including Starkville - under a high risk of severe weather today. This is something that isn't issued very often and should be taken very seriously.

A surface low is sitting over Arkansas with a cold front over eastern Texas. At 850 mb, winds are primarily out of the southwest between 50 and 60 knots - a very strong low-level jet. A 500-mb trough sits over Oklahoma and Texas with the SPC Mesoanalysis showing really good divergence aloft downstream (see below).

SPC/NOAA
At 300 mb, a jet streak can be found near the rear, NVA side of the jet stream.

Visible satellite imagery shows storms firing up near the the delta in Mississippi and Arkansas with storms to our north. Columbus Air Force Base radar shows strong to severe storms near Tupelo north to neat Iuka.

The models show the mid-level trough kicking through the area and becoming negatively tilted by roughly 0Z. The 850 mb winds will likely die down by 0Z, as well. The SPC has noted that temperatures have quickly rebounded this morning; therefore, further destabilization is expected to continue. The jet streak aloft, the approaching surface low, good diurnal heating, good moisture flow, and good dynamics spells trouble for the area.

The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion which states a PDS tornado watch may be issued soon...

...A VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

There is a good chance that I will be chasing this afternoon across the state. As for everyone else, be on the lookout for rapidly deteriorating conditions. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest.

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