Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Severe Weather Update: Nothing But a Fizzle?

Things don't look very interesting for severe weather in Mississippi this morning. Current surface analysis shows temps over the state in the low 70s with dewpoints in the 60s (see below).

Source: College of DuPage

It was actually 71 at my apartment this morning...at 6:50...in February. The sun has been out this morning, which is good for heating the surface and helping to destabilize the atmosphere. However, there is one problem and it's indicated on the 12Z sounding from Jackson, MS: The cap.

Source: Storm Prediction Center

There's a decent cap along with very dry air aloft. I wish, wish, wish there are balloon launches in Memphis. Regardless, if there was a sounding launch in Starkville the readings would likely be the same as JAN. The MLCAPE isn't too bad, but the veering winds with height aren't too impressive. The radar is not impressing me, either as there is only a line of what appears to be a "wanna-be squall line." The setup isn't at it's prime right now. At this moment, I'd have to say chances are good that the severe weather threat for the Starkville area appears to be a bust. The best chances of severe weather will be to our northeast today where the SPC has northern Alabama, parts of eastern Kentucky, and northern Georgia under a moderate risk.

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