Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Severe Weather Threat Today in the South

Today looks to be rather a record-breaking, if not crazy, day in the weather world. At least a half-dozen states look to see a massive blizzard that will paralyze areas of the Midwest. This storm will also bring a risk of severe weather to the southern states, including Mississippi.

The Storm Prediction Center is calling for the severe weather threat today over far-eastern Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, most of Alabama, and western Florida.

The upper-level trough over the plains and a powerful cold front and surface low continues to move east. As this system progresses, the southerly low-level flow should continue to enhance some warm air advection. The models show the best moisture later this afternoon over central and southern Mississippi with dewpoints at or above 60F. However, the Helicity values are in excess of 500 m^2/s^2 over the Starkville area this afternoon. Still, for the Golden Triangle to receive the best chance of severe weather there needs to be more moisture and warm air advection. Any breaks in cloudcover today could also further destabilize the atmosphere.

The primary threats from this storm seem to be hail, strong winds and an isolated tornado. There is already a tornado watch in effect for parts of LA and MS until 3 PM CST. Stay tuned to TV, radio, Internet, and/or NOAA Weather Radio throughout the day. Also keep an eye on my Twitter feed (twitter.com/daweathaman) for the latest info.

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