Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Sunday, February 27, 2011

SeCAPS; Slight Risk of Severe Weather for Mississippi

I am back in Starkville from attending the Southeastern Costal and Atmospheric Processes Symposium over the early weekend in Mobile, Alabama. I had a great time seeing speakers and interacting with meteorologist. I even had the chance to meet Dr. Chuck Doswell - a very cool guy and renowned atmospheric scientist. If you are a meteorologist or met student and don't know who Dr. Doswell is...something is wrong with you. We (other MS State met students and I) also had a the chance to tour NWS-Mobile, which is the fifth NWS office I have ever set foot in. Stay tuned for pics from the post-SeCAPS tour. I had a great time.

Now on to what's happening in the weather...

The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of northwestern Mississippi under a slight risk of severe weather through 12Z Monday (6 am CST) and most of Mississippi under a slight risk after 12Z Monday. Points northwest and then northeast of Mississippi will be under a moderate risk.

Current analysis indicates a surface high off Florida's east coast. A southerly flow is taking place over the gulf states with dewpoints mostly in the 60s. A surface low is also located over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles (see below). There are very strong winds over Texas with some reports of gusts over 60 mph. Upper air observations at 700, 500 and 300 mb show a trough over the southwestern United States.

Source: College of DuPage

The trough is expected to push towards the east and then northeast along with the low. Through the night and Monday morning, a deep south to south-southwesterly flow at 850 mb and veering with height to be at almost out of the west over northern Mississippi. The shear could be somewhat decent and instability could be a a tad better with the possibility of CAPE being at least 500 J/kg based on the NAM.

I'll have to wait until the morning to see how things pan out. For now, keep an eye on the skies in Starkville Monday morning. Stay tuned.

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