Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Saturday, February 12, 2011

From Snow to Warmth

Good afternoon, everybody. After dealing with cold - and even some snow here in Starkville - the warm up is on its way. By the way, you can check out some of my snow photos on my photo blog.

HPC/NOAA

Currently, a 1035-mb high is centered near the Texas coast according to HPC surface analysis. This high will help bring very nice weather to the south today and tomorrow. Both the NAM and the GFS show a upper trough over the Great Lakes region on Monday morning. A frontal system is expected to be associated with the trough, but a lot of the energy will be way to the north and not affect the southeast very much. In fact, NWS-JAN still has clear skies in the forecast Monday and Tuesday. Highs on Wednesday could even push towards the 70-degree mark.

Wait - what?

Warm weather?

Score!

But why? After the crazy winter weather pattern we've had this winter, why the change? Well, things are starting to become more zonal in the upper-air patterns, at least for the eastern United States. Teleconnections can also play a part in the shift. For instance, the Arctic Oscillation (what is the AO?) is generally going towards more of a positive phase (see graph below).

Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

This can mean stronger westerlies in the Arctic region to be stronger and keep colder air to the north. The North Atlantic Oscillation is expected be close to normal. A negative NAO phase would help bring colder air to the eastern United States. Therefore, the more neutral phase should keep conditions near average.

In a nutshell, the weather looks to be nice and warmer in the southeast, including Starkville, for at least the next five days. Enjoy it!

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