Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, January 24, 2011

Severe Weather Risk in Florida Tuesday

After a week of tranquil weather in the Sunshine State, it appears a chance of strong to severe storms is in the works Tuesday. Currently, a developing surface low pressure system is hugging the Texas coast as it moves east. This system is helping to dump rain in parts of the south, including west-central and southwestern Mississippi. This rain will continue to move west tonight and impact Mississippi State tonight and tomorrow (more on that in another blog post).

The guidance models are in agreement that a positively-tilted, upper-level trough will amplify throughout the night. This trough is expected to push towards the east Tuesday. Models are also showing 850-mb winds blowing decently out of the southwest - as high as 35 knots - and will aid in warm air and moisture advection to Florida. There is also a chance of having enough sunlight to help destabilize the atmosphere further. The SPC notes in their outlook that vertical wind shear will increase as the trough approaches from the west.

The primary threat appears to be strong damaging winds and a risk of tornadoes. Bow-echoed thunderstorms can influence this threat. The timing appears to be very late afternoon to after dusk.

I'll do my best to write a blog post tomorrow afternoon to give another update on the situation in Florida. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed (@daweathaman) for the latest. Stay alert, my Florida friends.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Gloomy Day Ahead for Starkville

It's been a real ugly morning Starkville with low cloudcover and cool temperatures. This will persist during the day, but some slight clearing looks to be in order tonight.

The shortwave trough that brought the rain chances earlier in the weekend and the severe weather threat in south Florida yesterday is no longer a concern. A cold front associated with a low in southern Michigan is expected to pass later today into this evening. Most of the cloudcover will still remain tonight. However, as the low-level moisture begins to leave, so will the clouds and skies should begin to clear out tomorrow morning. NWS-JAN is hinting in their latest discussion that there could still be some "stubborn" cloudcover aloft tomorrow. Some of the model runs do leave it fairly dry aloft during Wednesday.

Expect the next weather update sometime tomorrow.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Severe Weather Threat in S FLA

As a graduate student in Mississippi, there are times when I miss Florida. I miss the proximity to the beaches, the family and friends. I miss the beauty of the state. I also miss the weather, and today is an example of that.

Aloft, a shortwave trough is digging into the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to progress west today. At the surface, the SPC notes a low west-southwest of Tampa that is expected to move east-northesast. Infrared satellite imagery hints at a sharp boundary with cooler cloudtops. Level II state radar shows showers over central Florida with a few potent cells entering northern Brevard County and another entering northern Manatee County. In fact, NWS-MLB has issued a tornado warning for northern Brevard and southeastern Orange counties until 11:45 AM EST.

There are a few factors that could enhance the severe weather threat this afternoon in south Florida...

- Approaching shortwave trough could enhance wind shear to allow for rotating thunderstorms. 12Z soundings from Miami already indicates some shear and things could enhance later today.
- Satellite imagery shows some clearing north of Miami and south of Tampa Bay. Daytime heating could help destabilize the atmosphere later today.

However, the SPC notes that large-scale rising air will not be too great, but there is a shot of long-lived updrafts locally. The SPC has just issued a tornado watch for Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Monroe counties, and adjacent coastal waters (out to 20 NM) until 7 PM EST. The highest severe risk are strong winds and tornadoes. Based on a couple of storms I've seen this morning, bow echoes seem to be the culprit and the SPC is hinting at that continuing.

Keep any eye to the sky in south Florida. I'll do best to keep tabs on my Twitter account as the day wears on.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Starkville: IT'S GON' RAIN!

Good Sunday, everyone. I know, I know. It's been nearly three months since my last weather blog post. The end of last semester was busy and very stressful. I'm going to try my best to make updates from here on out - but I can't make any guarantees.

My first piece of weather info I looked at this morning was all the green displayed on the regional radar imagery. Parts of Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana are encountering moderate to heavy rain. This will make its way to The Golden Triangle area this afternoon.

Upper-air models are showing a shortwave trough over the Texas area that will progress west over the next day. Current observations and models are showing surface and 850-mb moisture levels increasing in Mississippi and points west. Infrared satellite imagery is showing what looks to be a baroclinic leaf, hinting the early stages of the developing low over eastern Texas.

As this storm continues to brew today, rainfall will start to move into the Starkville area and persist through the night. The 500-mb NAM and GFS are in good agreement of the shortwave trough's placement over Louisiana at 7 AM CST (12Z) Monday. Rain should start to taper off as the day progresses.

Rainfall doesn't seem that impressive according to the two-day HPC QPFs with only showing under a half-inch of precip for the area.

I hope to be back on the blog for a short update sometime Tuesday. Stay tuned.