Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Brownsville, TX Forecast for Thursday 10/07

Good morning! It seems like I was an idiot yesterday and forgot to place a forecast for this blog and the local competition. Oh, TA stuff. Let's try to get this thing back on track.

The same, boring weather pattern that has been going on since early last week persists in the Brownsville area. Current synoptic-scale analysis shows high pressure centered over northwestern Arkansas, bringing more of a northeast to east flow over the area.

The HPC forecast maps show high pressure moving south and closer to Brownsville over the next day. NWS-BRO and guidance note lower relative humidity levels moving in from the north starting around 12 Z (7 am CDT). This may give a chance for wider temperature values than we have recently observed (which makes forecasting highs and lows a little more difficult).

For tonight, the MOS guidance is hinting between 60 and 62 degrees for a low. BUFKIT is showing more of a northerly flow at the surface as the night wears on with speeds between 3 and 5 knots. This could slightly keep radiational cooling at bay, but the northerly flow will be more of a drier-air advection (unlike a NE flow that'll bring more of a moist air advection from the GOMEX). I think I will stick close to guidance for the low. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a low near 60.

For Thursday, expect sunny skies with a high near 87. The winds at the surface should be more out of the northeast around noon.

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