Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Glasgow, MT Forecast for Tuesday 10/19

Currently, HPC surface maps show high pressure over Montana bringing quiet conditions to the area. However, satellite is showing mid-level cloudcover that's about to enter the Glasgow area. It might have a slight effect on today's high.

NWS-Glasgow mentioned rising heights for tomorrow in their AFD, which would rise temps a little bit. Model guidance is hinting at this during day Tuesday.

What will make this forecast tricky is the cloudcover and weather that will linger tonight. This could have an affect on overnight lows.

For tonight, expect mid-level cloudiness with some clearing before dawn and a low near 33. I am going to go slightly above guidance. Tuesday, expect partly cloudy skies with a high near 64.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Glasgow, MT Forecast for Tuesday 10/12

Today, I am writing my forecast from my alma mater in Gainesville, FL. We (the class) don't need to do a forecast this weekend since it's fall break, but I figured it wouldn't be a bad idea to keep up with the forecasts.

Our new location to forecast is Glasgow, Montana. Currently, a cold front is passing through the state bringing in showers. Glasgow should get hit with this relatively light rain later on today as the front pushes through. Skies should begin to clear up after the frontal passage based on visible satellite imagery. However, low clouds are showing up on the visible in what appears to be valleys. Therefore, valleys that have experienced some rain today might see some low cloudcover after the passage (You see how much I know about the topography of the west?).

As the night wears on, skies should start to clear out as the front moves out the state and high pressure rolls into the area. This should allow for cooler temperatures to move in. Tuesday should be a nice day as high pressure remains.

Tonight, expect clearer skies late with a low near 39. For Tuesday, expect sunny skies with a high near 60.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Brownsville, TX Forecast for Thursday 10/07

Good morning! It seems like I was an idiot yesterday and forgot to place a forecast for this blog and the local competition. Oh, TA stuff. Let's try to get this thing back on track.

The same, boring weather pattern that has been going on since early last week persists in the Brownsville area. Current synoptic-scale analysis shows high pressure centered over northwestern Arkansas, bringing more of a northeast to east flow over the area.

The HPC forecast maps show high pressure moving south and closer to Brownsville over the next day. NWS-BRO and guidance note lower relative humidity levels moving in from the north starting around 12 Z (7 am CDT). This may give a chance for wider temperature values than we have recently observed (which makes forecasting highs and lows a little more difficult).

For tonight, the MOS guidance is hinting between 60 and 62 degrees for a low. BUFKIT is showing more of a northerly flow at the surface as the night wears on with speeds between 3 and 5 knots. This could slightly keep radiational cooling at bay, but the northerly flow will be more of a drier-air advection (unlike a NE flow that'll bring more of a moist air advection from the GOMEX). I think I will stick close to guidance for the low. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a low near 60.

For Thursday, expect sunny skies with a high near 87. The winds at the surface should be more out of the northeast around noon.

Monday, October 4, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Brownsville, TX Forecast for Tuesday 10/05

The nice weather pattern in place for the last week is expected to persist on Tuesday. At the synoptic scale, high pressure is over Wisconson and bringing a northeast flow to the Brownsville area. Both the NAM and GFS seem to be in good agreement for this pattern to persist for Tuesday brining a strong northeast to north-northeast flow to the area.

This northeasterly flow could alter temperatures a bit tonight and Tuesday. Expect fair conditions tonight with a low near 67. For Tuesday, expect partly cloudy skies and breezy with a high near 86.