Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Brownsville, TX Forecast for Thursday 09/30

It's going to be the same song-and-dance for Thursday as high pressure at the surface and aloft will continue to hold over the region. This will allow warm temps and mostly clear skies to remain over the area.

The surface wind pattern seems to be variable from NW to NE tonight according to MOS guidance runs, which makes predicting the low a little difficult. Any deviation of wind direction could alter the temp by a couple degrees due to any local advection. Moisture levels will increase as guidance suggests dewpoints in the 60s. I will call for clear skies tonight with a low near 65. For Thursday, expect fair skies with a high near 90.

Quick Update on TD 16

This morning, Tropical Depression 16 is, well, still Tropical Depression 16. It has not intensified since the last blog post and I'm not 100 percent sure if it will before the center of circulation impacts south Florida later today.

The center of circulation is over Cuba at the moment and is expected to move back over the waters later this morning or early afternoon. NHC forecasts have the center hitting south Florida and the upper Keys by this evening. It's then expected to cross southeast Florida and exit over the Atlantic early Thursday morning.

Wind shear is pretty high as the trough and the surface front still hangs nearby. This should keep the cyclone from intensifying too much, if at all.

Impacts from this system are relatively mild as inland flooding is the main concern. Doppler radar storm total estimates show rainfall at 5 or more inches for portions of southeast Florida and the Keys, with some spots picking up as much as 7 inches.

Stay dry, south Florida.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Brownsville, TX Forecast for Wednesday 09/29

Today is looking to shape up as a good day in Brownsville with fair skies and temperatures in the low 80s. A similar pattern is expected to remain as high pressure - currently centered over Colorado - remains in control.

Lighter winds with clear skies may allow for a little more radiational cooling tonight than last night since winds were less than 7 mph. However, moisture still on the ground from recent heavy rainfall may keep temperature slightly warmer than what guidance is predicting. I'm calling for fair skies tonight with a low near 61. For Wednesday, expect mostly sunny skies with a high near 89.

Tropical Depression Sixteen (soon to be T.S. Nicole) Looks to Impact S FLA.

This morning, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Sixteen in the Caribbean Sea after the disturbance began showing signs of a well-defined closed center of circulation.

As of the 2 pm EDT advisory, winds were at 35 mph as the storm was moving north-northeast at 15 mph. The storm was 160 miles south of Havana, Cuba. This general track is expected to continue according to the NHC outlook. This would place its path towards the south Florida area as early as Wednesday afternoon. The NHC has issued tropical storm warnings from Jupiter Inlet southward to east Cape Sable and Florida Bay as well as the Florida Keys.

Right now, the circulation is a little easier to pick out on visible satellite imagery, but hard to depict on infrared. A lot of the heaviest convection is south of the center of circulation. Moments ago, hurricane reconnaissance aircraft found winds at 35 knots, hinting that this may already be Tropical Storm Nicole. The NHC has yet to confirm this. If it is the case, it will likely be named at the 5 p.m. EDT advisory. One thing may limit its intensification: The trough that is digging into the southeast (and helping to bring some nice, cool weather here in Starkville, MS). Wind shear values north of the depression (~ 20-30 kts) are unfavorable values with regards to intensification.

The trough and associated stationary surface front - which is bringing heavy rain to central Florida - will guide this storm over southeast Florida come Wednesday. The GFS is calling for the TC to move right over inland south Florida. The rest of the guidance models have it going more right and just off the coast of Miami-Dade. Regardless, southeast Florida will deal with gusty winds and heavy rain. Conditions should improve in central and south Florida as early as Thursday morning based on guidance models and HPC surface forecasts.

As to where this system will go beyond Florida, it appears likely that it will lose its tropical characteristics and move north as a mid-latitude low. The 300-mb GFS guidance shows more of a negative tilting in the trough, which could push it towards the Carolinas, as what the HPC seems to be showing starting Thursday night.

In a nutshell, southeast Florida can expect some heavy rain and gusty winds starting Wednesday. I doubt this storm will reach hurricane strength, but it has the chance of being a decent tropical storm.

Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest. I'll post as much as I can as I will be studying for a Calculus II test (fail!).

Monday, September 27, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Brownsville, TX Forecast for Tuesday 09/27

Starting today, participants in the forecasting contest move onto a new location: Brownsville, Texas. The city sits near the US and Mexican border along the gulf coast.

Currently, high pressure rests to the north bringing a northerly flow to the area. For Tuesday, this trend is expected to continue and bring nice weather to the area.

MOS guidance has temps in the low 60s tonight. Skies should be mostly clear with winds slightly decreasing as the night moves on. If clear skies prevail and winds die down enough, radiational cooling would be near prime. Tonight, I will call for mostly clear skies with a low near 62, which is near guidance. Tuesday, skies should be mostly sunny with a high near 87.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Atlanta Forecast for Thursday 09/23

Current conditions in Atlanta are essentially a carbon copy of Monday with a deep-layer high to the east of the area (up to about 500 mb). An easterly to southerly flow persists in the area. There is a little more moisture in the air compared to a few days ago with dewpoints currently in the 60s.

The synoptic setup on Thursday is not expected to change much as the high continues to sit to our east. There may be a very slim chance of rain based on NWS-FFC discussions, but I am not confident enough to put it in the forecast for Thursday.

For tonight, expect fair skies with a low near 71 (just a degree or two higher than guidance). For Thursday, expect partly cloudy skies with a high near 90.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Atlanta Forecast for Wednesday 09/22

Current surface analysis shows high pressure centered over eastern Pennsylvania. At the upper levels, 12Z analysis shows a high between 850 and 400 mb. This subsistence aloft will help keep rain chances near nil for the today.

Guidance models are forecasting the high over New England to keep sliding east into the Atlantic. This will bring more of a southerly flow tomorrow and pull in more moisture at the surface. High pressure aloft is expected to remain tomorrow and help keep things capped. However, NWS-FFC is keeping a very slim chance of rain for the Atlanta area. I am not very confident of adding a chance of precip to the forecast based on the mid-level high that's expected to remain.

I've been forecasting a little cooler than actual lows; therefore, I might raise the low temp Wednesday morning slightly above MOS guidance. Expect fair conditions tonight with a low near 72. For Wednesday, expect partly cloudy skies, a little muggy with a high near 90.

Monday, September 20, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Atlanta Forecast for Tuesday 09/21

High pressure is currently sitting over the Great Lakes as a frontal system and associated low is over near the Dakotas. A ridge exists in the southeast between 850 mb and 300 mb. SPC forecasts and models note the surface high to move on to the east as the frontal system moves east towards the midwest.

For the Atlanta area, not a whole lot in the weather department is expected. MOS guidance is calling for moisture to decrease as the current northerly flow is expected to persist at least through today. Tomorrow, the high to the north moving off to the east should bring more of a easterly to southeasterly flow. Guidance is hinting at dewpoints to hang around the 60 degree range on Tuesday.

Expect fair skies tonight in the ATL with a low near 69. For Tuesday, expect partly cloudy mostly sunny skies with a high near 92.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Atlanta Forecast for Thursday 09/16

Currently, high pressure is centered over extreme western North Carolina. Conditions are mostly clear in the Atlanta area with temps in the 80s.

The high pressure to the northeast of ATL is expected to move offshore today and Thursday. This should usher in more of a southerly flow and should raise the temps above average. I expect temperatures to be a little warmer tonight compared to this morning - fair skies tonight with a low near 68.

During the day, expect partly cloudy skies with a high near 90. Some cloudcover may keep temps slightly cooler than otherwise, but this predicted temp is slightly above guidance.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Atlanta Forecast for Wednesday 09/15

Current visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over northern Georgia with temps running in the upper 80s across the area. Surface analysis shows the high pressure in extreme eastern North Carolina. Winds are light and variable for the area, as well.

Some of the models are indicating the high to start to move off the North Carolina coast sometime tomorrow, bringing more a east to southeast flow. Temps should be a little warmer. Otherwise, not much of a change to the status quo.

Tonight's low temp prediction is something I find slightly tricky with the MOS GFS going for 59 and the MOS NAM shooting for 66. The NAM is predicting a little more moisture than the GFS, which could be the reason for the discrepancies. There is not much of a wind flow expected at 1000 mb at 12 Z (8 a.m. EDT), so any moisture or temp advection is a little hard to determine. I think I will stick with current trends from today and may call for a slightly warmer low than this morning. Tonight, expect mostly clear conditions in Atlanta with a low near 63.

Wednesday should be more of the same with mostly sunny skies with a high near 90. There should be more of a southeasterly flow during the day, so my predicted high slightly above MOS guidance.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Forecasting Contest - Atlanta Forecast for Tuesday

Good morning! I am going to do my best to keep up with providing detailed-as-possible weather forecasts for the forecasting contest in my Weather Analysis I class. This week, we start off with Atlanta, Ga...

Currently, high pressure is dominating the southeastern states with the high sitting to the northwest of the ATL area based on HPC surface analysis. Models are expected to move the high to the east today and tonight, which will help usher in a more easterly flow into north Georgia starting no later than tomorrow morning. This will keep temperatures a little more moderated, but keep skies mostly clear and very nice for the area.

A light easterly wind, very little cloudcover and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will allow good radiational cooling tonight. NWS-Peachtree City is calling for a low near 58 tonight, but I think that's too cool, mostly because of the more easterly flow. I think the low will be a little near MOS guidance and I'll call for a low of 61 tonight with mostly clear skies.

Tuesday will be very nice with the high to the north and maybe slightly east of Atlanta metro. The light easterly flow will continue. I'm calling for a high of 88. No rain is expected for Tuesday.

In a nutshell, expect some nice weather in the A-T-L, so get out an enjoy it!

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Forecasting Contest Change...

I'm just letting everyone know that there was a change in the weather forecasting contest I mentioned in the previous post. The contest has been delayed due to technical issues. I will start forecasting for the Atlanta area starting next Monday (Sept. 13). I'll try to make Starkville and/or Gainesville updates at least once this week. Stay tuned...

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Warm-up expected soon in Starkville; Forecasting Contest Begins

Good afternoon, everyone! It's been Chamber of Commerce weather here Starkville, MS as sunny skies and drier conditions have persisted. It looks like this weather will sustain itself for the rest of Sunday where temperatures have been in the mid 80s in the Golden Triangle area. Tonight, the dry air and clear skies will allow for optimal radiational cooling. NWS-JAN is calling for Monday morning lows in the mid 50s for Oktibbeha County.

For Monday, HPC forecast surface maps are showing a ridge near the mid-Atlantic coast. The GFS and NAM are hinting at more of a southeasterly flow by 0Z Tuesday (7 pm CDT Monday). Warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico will help increase moisture and raise temps and dewpoints. A chance of rain exists for most of the week as moisture continues to increase and as a low south of the area begins to inch its way back to the north, per NWS-JAN's forecast discussion.

FORECASTING CONTEST

In Weather Analysis I, students are required to participate in a forecasting contest. Unfortunately for Starkville residents and my friends back in the Gainesville-Ocala area, we are given cities to forecast and they change every so often. In our class, the contest officially begins Tuesday and will start with Wednesday's forecast. However, I will start a day early just to get in the habit of doing it. The first city: Atlanta, Ga.

My desire is to post my forecasts on here for the required four days per week. So, expect a brief discussion on the given city with the predicted high, low, amount of rain and rain amount chances. As usual, I appreciate comments and discussion from blog readers on my forecasts.

I'll make posts on Starkville and beyond as needed. Maybe this will get me back in the habit of noting weather back here and at home. Stay tuned...