This morning, it appears that the tropical wave that's north of Hispaniola and near the southeastern Bahamas has become disorganized. Wind shear analysis shows that the north part of the wave is still encountering at least 20-to 25-kt wind shear.
Because of the disorganized fashion of this disturbance, the US Air Force has cancelled their scheduled reconnaissance mission today. They may try again tomorrow if conditions warrant.
However, I am now noticing a nice area of convection near the Lesser Antilles in the last few satellite images. This may be convection that's part of the wave - I'm not sure. If any mets are reading this, I am open to input on this.
Regardless, the NHC is still giving this a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Apparently, conditions are expected to improve for development.
Right now, it's expected to be a rain maker for the vicinity, including the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. The Bahamas should start to see rain starting tomorrow. The models continue to show a south Florida impact this weekend.
As for intensity, I am not sure if this will be developed and named within the next 48 hours. Still, interests in south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico need to watch this for potential development. Regardless of development, expect a wet weekend in south Florida.
I hope to have some time this evening to revisit the models and data to give another update. Stay tuned.