Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Rain, Thunderstorms Likely Tuesday

For the last few days in Gainesville, the weather has been fairly hot and muggy. High temps in the low 90s with dewpoints in the 70s have hinted a return of summer to Florida.

To our north and west, a cold front with a trough in the jet stream, along with shortwave energy, is spawning showers and storms. The heaviest of the activity is currently over Georgia and South Carolina.

On Tuesday, NWS-JAX is expecting deep layer moisture along with shortwave energy to move into Georgia. Rain will develop and then move into Florida "by late morning and during the afternoon" according to the latest AFD. The temperatures should be cooler due to the cloudcover and rain.

The severe weather threat looks very low for the area. Weak lapse rates at the mid levels and cloudcover seem to be limiting factors according to the SPC's day 2 discussion.

For Tuesday, I would expect a good chance (about 60-70 percent chance) of showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two across Gainesville. Temps should be a little cooler (80s). Rain chances for Wednesday look to be 50-50 as the front starts to weaken. Slim chances of rain are then expected for the rest of the work week.

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