Watching the Gulf of Mexico

Good morning! Things have changed slightly since last night's weather post. From viewing satellite imagery, HPC surface observations and discussions, a warm frontal boundary in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has formed and, therefore, spawned some showers and likely thunderstorms (judging by the cold cloudtops on infrared sat imagery). Some views of this cluster can be seen on composite radar, but I am not taking too much credence of the reflectivity values just yet due to the distances of the coldest cloudtops (on the west side of the complex) from the NEXRAD sites.

Overcast conditions have now taken over Gainesville and will likely continue as this cluster of storms moves east.


Images: IR satellite (left, via WeatherTap.com); Surface MSLP/wind (right, via NOAA/SPC)

This cloudcover may take down the instability a notch because of the lack of daytime heating. Dewpoints in GNV has yet to reach 60 while places such as Ocala and southward have hit or surpassed that mark.

Rain should start affecting the area later on today. However, expect another batch of rain and storms later on tonight as the front nears and dynamics improve.

More later.