Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Friday, January 1, 2010

New Year Brings Cold

Good afternoon and Happy New Year, everyone. It's been a while since my last weather blog post. I am kind of making it a New Year's resolution to make more posts on here - at least once every few days. Hope it sticks.

At the moment, a cold front with associated showers have passed the Gainesville area late this morning. Skies continue to be mostly cloudy, but judging by visible satellite imagery clearing is expected in the area real soon as the cloud cover passes with the front.

At the upper levels, a deep trough in the jet stream, along with the passage of the surface low and its flow, will bring colder air to much of the midwest and eastern U.S. for the next few days according to guidance models. NWS-JAX is considering this as "one of the longest duration cold spells in quite some time" in this morning's Area Forecast Discussion.

However, the big question: How cold? NWS-JAX calls for lows in Gainesville in the low 30s tonight, but MOS guidance is mostly hinting in the upper 20s except for the NAM. I would have to agree with the NWS at this time since, based on experience, it might take a little longer for the coldest air to reach here after the passage of the front. Plus, winds created by pressure gradients after the passage of the low and associated cold front will inhibit radiational cooling and keep air temperatures a little warm. However, with any wind, it may feel colder.

Starting Saturday, the pressure gradient is expected to weaken and bring colder nighttime temps to much of Florida. NAM guidance seems to be treating this a little warm while GFS is calling for temps near 20. For now, I would wait before I call for an exact temperature reading. Regardless, by Florida standards, temperatures are expected to be very cold with below freezing temps each morning through at least Wednesday. Highs are expected to not get close to 60 degrees through Wednesday.

For now, I call for clearing skies in the area today with highs reaching into the upper 50s. Continued clearing with some wind is expected tonight in Titletown with a Saturday morning low near 32. Keep any eye on my Twitter and Facebook feeds for my predictions for the next few nights. Stay warm.

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