I think good 'ol El Nino is starting to flex its muscle on our weather patterns. It's only going to become more frequent, so get used to it.
Our first severe weather potential system is on its way to north central Florida starting tomorrow. This evening, me and another UF-AMS member discussed at the meeting the setup for the storm system which is churning in the Gulf of Mexico.
What's happening now...
A deepening surface low is in place with an associated warm front and stationary front over the western Gulf of Mexico. Infrared satellite imagery shows moderate convection in the gulf while radar shows rain streaming into the Florida panhandle, Georgia and Alabama. Radar also shows rain - associated with an upper-level low - over eastern Texas moving into Louisiana.
Models have the upper-low over Texas open up and move towards the northeast along the subtropical jet stream. This should aid in negative tilting in the upper-levels and help support instability (more about negative tilting). At the surface, the warm front to our south will move north later and will place the area in the warm sector. NWS-JAX notes that the surface low in the gulf should be in southern Mississippi by 7 a.m. EST. Short-range forecasts have the low racing off to the northeast.
It's looking like the squall line that would bring the worst weather should arrive sometime in the afternoon, but leave the Gainesville area before 8 p.m.
The primary threat seems be strong winds with thunderstorms, including threat a of bow-echoed storms. A low-level jet of nearly 60 knots will also keep the threat of severe weather alive. This is all despite the fact that very little insolation is expected and is one limiting factor for instability.
As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has most of Florida under a slight risk category for Wednesday. Things might change once I wake up in the morning. Therefore, keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest.
Mostly cloudy for Wednesday with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe with strong winds. It's a good day for a rain coat at UF. Storms should start to clear out later in the evening.
Stay informed, and be safe!