Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

WHERE'S FALL??????

So, yea. For over a week, Florida has been under some ungodly weather for this time of year. Let's put things into perspective of where things should be in our area...

- Fall is usually considered in Florida when the average daily minimum temperatures fall below 60 degrees F. In Gainesville, it usually happens the second or third week of October (Winsberg, 2003). It's week two (approaching week 3) and we're still mostly in the 70s.
- The normal low for this morning is 61 (NOAA). It was 69 with dewpoints in the upper 60s.

In other words, it's been terrible.

What is happening now...
A stationary front is over the area with temps mostly in the 80s with showers and storms around the area. However, based on surface observations and the NWS-JAX discussion, the front appears to be diffused.

Next couple of days...
Fog could be an issue tomorrow since low-level moisture persists with the possibility of temperature inversions at some spots. On Monday and Tuesday, the HPC notes a wave of low pressure to move along the front (as it moves north during the next two days). Guidance models (NGM and GFS) show a continued surface and 850mb-level SE flow and should continue to bring in moisture. NWS-JAX notes that favorable dynamics aloft and shortwave energy could enhance thunderstorm development with a chance of a few strong ones. They have left the area at a 50-50 chance of rain Monday and 40 percent Tuesday.

Later this week...
It looks like the awful heat has a chance to vamos this weekend. A developing low is expect to bring the front back north. This low should be amplified by a upper trough that guidance models are picking up on over the southeast. The frontal passage, which could be Friday night/Saturday based on HPC surface forecasts, could bring some cooler weather to the area. However, NWS-JAX is hinting at a severe weather risk based on the possibility of a southwesterly low-level jet and sufficient instability. Time will tell whether this holds up - it's a little too early to call that threat.

In a nutshell...
Hot and gross for the next few days. Friday, good chance of storms with a cooler temps this weekend. We'll see how this forecast holds up.

Keep an eye on my Twitter updates for the latest.

Sources: Winsberg, Morton D. "Florida Weather, Second Edition" University Press of Florida, 2007

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