Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Summer in October

We had a nice shot of cold air last week, but now have it return back to this humid and hot weather - in October. What's the big deal?

For the last few days, the upper-air patterns have been locking colder air to the north and keeping the area pretty warm. Current 300-mb height maps show the jet stream to the north only bringing cooler air to parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and again over the central Great Lakes (per surface temperature map patterns).

(formula too complicated to put in "alt" tag

There is a high pressure system at the upper, mid and lower levels over the southeast and Gulf of Mexico. This is keeping things very warm, humid, but keeping rain chances relatively low for our area. The ridge is expected to move east over time and be out in the Atlantic waters Friday (models seem to be in agreement of this) and bring more of a southerly flow to the area.

Some amount of hope: NWS-Jacksonville is hinting at a cold front to approach the area and bring a chance of showers and storms to the area. One model, the ECMWF, is pushing the front to the south of Gainesville and bringing some cooler and drier air. NOGAPS seems to indicate a high pressure influence over the area on Tuesday. Models also show the upper trough (dip in the jet stream) to be in the mid Atlantic states Tuesday.

The Climate Prediction Center is also indicating below normal temperatures six to 10 days out for the eastern seaboard.

Right now, model guidance (remember the word "guidance") seems to give us a clue to possible relief from this October summer the we in North Central Florida have been experiencing. I'll keep watching it.

In the meantime, things seem to remain pretty balmy with summer-like conditions. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a low near 72. For Thursday, partly cloudy with a chance of a few stray showers. I'm expecting a high near 92. It will be moist with dewpoints hanging in the 70s and with precipitable water amounts near 2 inches.

Things may change in the next few days. Keep tabs on my Twitter account for the latest.

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