Good morning from balmy north central Florida. It's 84 at my apartment complex and partly cloudy. It looks like we might get a chance of a shower or two this afternoon per NWS-JAX forecast. But I'm not writing to talk about Gainesville's weather. It's time to scope in on Baton Rouge, Louisiana for tonight's Florida and Louisiana State football game.
Currently, NWS radar from Slidell shows a southwest to northeast line of showers moving east and the last of it is passing over Baton Rouge. This is associated with a cold front that passed this morning. However, NWS-New Orleans notes in their AFD that the "frontal trough bisects the area and has stalled." This would help set the stage for the front to move back northeast and would create an environment for showers and thunderstorms later today and this evening.
Both the 0Z (8 pm EDT) NAM and GFS runs seem to show high precip over the area around 8 p.m. However, I am waiting on the 12Z runs to see how what they show and might give another update later today. GFS precipitable water amounts seem to creep back up from the south near kickoff.
It looks like chances are good that we could see some rain during the game this evening as this front pushes back a little this PM. I think that KBTR will not be in the warm sector and temps will remain slightly cool (for Florida standards); therefore, the temps should be around 66 at kickoff.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers. Temp: near 66.
I'll be at home with Erin and a friend watching the game in HD. I'll also be watching the radar. Keep an eye on my Twitter account for updates.