Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Same 'ol, Same 'ol...

It looks to be the same song and dance for the southeastern states for the next few days. An upper trough over northern New England and a ridge over the Great Plains seems to be locked in place according to the GFS and NAM forecast models for the next 48 hours. This will help keep the surface synoptic-scale systems in place through Friday night.

A cut-off low over far-eastern Texas, northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas will be in place, bringing a risk for flash flooding across that area. Both aforementioned models seem to have the low dissolve slowly after Saturday.

As for Gainesville, NWS-JAX mentions that "pieces of shortwave energy and deep moisture" is expected to move in for the next few days. Therefore scattered showers and storms will be probable for the next few days.

For Thursday and Friday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high on Thursday near 87 with a high Friday near 89. The next few days should be pretty balmy and not-so-fall like.

There is some hope, however. The Climate Prediction Center is calling for below-average temperatures for the six-to 10-day outlook. The GFS starts to show a trough starting to dig a little south from Canada as early as Monday morning. Could this be the clue? We'll wait and see. I can sure use some real fall weather now.

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