It's been a while since my last weather blog post. School, work and life have seem to take over. Therefore, I have not had much time to focus and work on nightly forecasts. Therefore, this blog might up being a source for occasional updates on certain events (i.e. big change in weather patterns, weekly updates, significant events, approaching tropical weather, etc).
This weekend - yes, the same weekend as the Florida and Troy football game - there is a high chance of rain that could alter some tailgating plans.
Right now, a broad area of low pressure is sitting in the northern Gulf of Mexico (as shown below).
Surface forecast analysis, NAM and GFS models seem to show the actual low moving very little and not have a head-on impact of the area. However, a baroclinic zone is expected to develop and be near the west coast of Florida by 8 a.m. Saturday according to NWS-JAX's latest forecast discussion. A southwesterly flow from this baroclinic zone should help increase rain chances. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms seems to be the bet for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable Water amounts of well over 2 inches should aid in rainfall development.
QPF's from the HPC for tonight thru Saturday night predict an inch or more of rain for the area.
Advice, especially for the game: be prepared for a drenching. If you are going to the game, have a raincoat on hand. NWS-JAX has rain chances for Gainesville on Saturday at 80 percent.
Keep an eye on my Twitter posts for more info.