Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Gator Game Kickoff Forecast: Lexington, Kentucky

Today's forecast is for the metro area of Lexington, where the University of Kentucky will play the Florida Gators this evening.




Above is the latest surface analysis from the HPC. Over eastern Kentucky, a low pressure system that has dumped lots of rain and has put the metro area under a flash flood warning will slowly be moving east over time. This may sound like good news, but a closed upper low, which models show "opening up" to a upper trough tonight, will bring cooler air aloft. NWS in Louisville notes this could bring more instability and keep rain chances at a decent level this evening around kickoff. However, by later tonight, drier air should filter in and improve conditions.

Throughout the day, rain chances should remain high. At kickoff (6 PM EDT), there should be a good chance of rain with skies clearing out by midnight.

I am calling for a high near 74 in LEX with a temp at kickoff near 70.

Enjoy the game and stay dry. Go Gators!

UPDATE (10:30 AM EDT): Flash Flood Warning has been downgraded to a Flood Advisory by NWS-LMK. However, a Flash Flood Watch does remain in effect for the Lexington metro area.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Dude, Where's My Cooler Weather?

Okay, summer is over as Tuesday as we move to the autumn equinox here in the northern hemisphere. It's time for things to cool down...

...

*ahem*

...

...waiting.

However, our luck might change next week.

Currently, an mid-level ridge to the north is bringing in a ENE flow to the area. This dry air aloft will help keep rain chances low until at least Saturday. HPC surface forecasts show a backdoor front approaching the area and stalling out north of Jacksonville on Saturday. Also, as the high shifts, a west-southwest flow should aid in the increase of moisture. At least for the weekend, there could be as much as a 50-50 chance of rain.

At the beginning of the work week, HPC surface forecasts show a front passing through on Tuesday after a weaker front stalls near the area. Plus, jet stream forecasts show a trough dipping as far south as North Carolina during the same time period. This setup should (hopefully) bring some cooler and drier weather to North Central Florida.

GFSX guidance is calling for temps Wednesday and Thursday mornings to be around 60 with highs in the low 80s. It's just one model and it's five days away, so we'll wait and see. However, things look promising for a much-needed cool down in the Gainesville area.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Same 'ol, Same 'ol...

It looks to be the same song and dance for the southeastern states for the next few days. An upper trough over northern New England and a ridge over the Great Plains seems to be locked in place according to the GFS and NAM forecast models for the next 48 hours. This will help keep the surface synoptic-scale systems in place through Friday night.

A cut-off low over far-eastern Texas, northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas will be in place, bringing a risk for flash flooding across that area. Both aforementioned models seem to have the low dissolve slowly after Saturday.

As for Gainesville, NWS-JAX mentions that "pieces of shortwave energy and deep moisture" is expected to move in for the next few days. Therefore scattered showers and storms will be probable for the next few days.

For Thursday and Friday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high on Thursday near 87 with a high Friday near 89. The next few days should be pretty balmy and not-so-fall like.

There is some hope, however. The Climate Prediction Center is calling for below-average temperatures for the six-to 10-day outlook. The GFS starts to show a trough starting to dig a little south from Canada as early as Monday morning. Could this be the clue? We'll wait and see. I can sure use some real fall weather now.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Saturday NIght Weather Update

Gainesville got rain today, with a few moments of heavy rain. This was primarily during the Florida and Troy football game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium here in Gainesville. In the end, the rain didn't phase the Gators or the fans as UF won 56-6.

Currently, skies remain mostly cloudy with moderate rain occurring to our south. The rain is making a west to east track.

A quasi-stationary front is extending over the north Florida area as a stream of moisture continues to feed into the area according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion. A trough digging from the northeast to the south should help allow high rain chances for the next two days.

For Sunday, expect it to me more like today with NWS-JAX calling for rain chances near 70 percent. The high should be near 85.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Rain on the way for the weekend

It's been a while since my last weather blog post. School, work and life have seem to take over. Therefore, I have not had much time to focus and work on nightly forecasts. Therefore, this blog might up being a source for occasional updates on certain events (i.e. big change in weather patterns, weekly updates, significant events, approaching tropical weather, etc).

This weekend - yes, the same weekend as the Florida and Troy football game - there is a high chance of rain that could alter some tailgating plans.

Right now, a broad area of low pressure is sitting in the northern Gulf of Mexico (as shown below).



Surface forecast analysis, NAM and GFS models seem to show the actual low moving very little and not have a head-on impact of the area. However, a baroclinic zone is expected to develop and be near the west coast of Florida by 8 a.m. Saturday according to NWS-JAX's latest forecast discussion. A southwesterly flow from this baroclinic zone should help increase rain chances. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms seems to be the bet for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable Water amounts of well over 2 inches should aid in rainfall development.

QPF's from the HPC for tonight thru Saturday night predict an inch or more of rain for the area.

Advice, especially for the game: be prepared for a drenching. If you are going to the game, have a raincoat on hand. NWS-JAX has rain chances for Gainesville on Saturday at 80 percent.

Keep an eye on my Twitter posts for more info.