It has been a couple of days since I have done a forecast. The holiday weekend and other events have kept me away from the forecasting. Now, after a nice weekend, it's time to get back into the swing of things. I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend.
The dry period we have had for the last few days that has kept the weekend pretty nice will start to come to an end starting Monday. The ridge that has been shifting south and will continue to do so enhancing southerly flow and, therefore, increase moisture in the area. Also, a broad trough will develop to the north early this week and stall to the north. Rain chances will increase starting Monday (NWS-JAX is calling for 60 percent). The GFS is pointing out to heavy rain over north Florida Monday evening while the NAM guidance shows very little rain in the area.
At least moderate instability is forecast in the area due to the previously mentioned setup according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, they have not (at this time) listed the Gainesville area at a slight risk of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts seems to be the primary threat.
For the rest of the night, skies becoming mostly cloudy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a low near 75. For Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of a showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.
Keep any eye on the Twitter feed for any late-breaking weather.