Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 07.29.2009

STARBUCKS, GAINESVILLE, FLA - The City of Gainesville got just a tad of rain today - and that's about it. Points east and south got most of the rain as storms developed and moved east towards the east coast seabreeze.

Tomorrow looks to be the same song and dance as the deep southwest flow will continue to pump in moisture to the area. Any rain and storms could start as early as late morning. I expect the east coast sea breeze, like today, to slowly roll in later in the day and not be much of an influence to the Gainesville area. NAM guidance seems to have a lot of moisture to our west Wednesday evening as the GFS is a little conservative.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a low near 72. For Wednesday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms with a high near 90. NWS-JAX is calling for a 70 percent shot of rain.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 07.28.2009

Well, I guess it was safe to say that my forecast was blown today. It seems like the Gainesville area ended up being in a dry zone where the rain fell far to the south and back north and west. It seems like just about anything goes around Gainesville anymore. I digress.

The trough that has been to the north and west for the last few days will begin to lift north as the Bermuda high takes hold of the area. This will continue the southwest flow. The east and west coast seabreezes will be the lifting mechanisms for tomorrow's storms, which NWS-JAX places the Gainesville area at 50 percent. This seems to be more of a logical percentage compared to the 70 percent chance given for today, but GNV never received a drop.

Tonight, skies should be mostly clear with a morning low near 71. For Tuesday, partly cloudy skies with a 50-50 chance of rain. Expect a high near 90.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Forecast for Monday 07.27.2009

It's good to be back forecasting after a week of being out of town for part of it and being sick for nearly six days.

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville (NWS-JAX) notices a shortwave though in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico moving towards the east. With high enough moisture content at the surface and aloft, this aid in spawning a few showers tonight, but a very low chance.

For Monday, there seems to be very little synoptic influence; therefore, a light southwest flow and east and west coast seabreezes will help develop afternoon showers and storms. NWS-JAX is forecasting a 70 percent chance of rain for the Gainesville area. NAM model guidance is aggressive with the amount of precip tomorrow evening while the GFS is toned down.

Tonight, partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain and a morning low near 71. On Wednesday, expect partly cloudy skies with a good chance of showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.

Forecasts to Resume Tonight

Hey, everyone (if anyone is still reading). From being gone in research assistance for two days last week to being ill, I've had my hands full and have not been "there" for forecasting. However, I'm feeling much better and should resume forecasting starting this evening. Check back!

So far today, scattered showers and storms are rolling in across north Florida - mostly in Marion County. All storms are moving northeast or east-northeast.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 07.18.2009

It was a dry Friday for Gainesville. Most of the rain remained either to the south or north of the area. However, things may change on Saturday.

The front that is to our north is expected to inch its way south and stall just to the north of the Georgia-Florida border. This will amplify rain chances for the Gainesville area on Saturday.

What is not 100 percent certain is the timing of the rain - will it come in the morning or later in the afternoon? If the rain arrives in the afternoon, this will affect the intensity of any storms due to daytime heating in the equation. Also, I am not seeing any visual clues of any small mid to upper disturbances (i.e. shortwave troughs, etc) in the model guidance on Saturday. So, for now, it's a wait-and-see game.

Currently, there are some showers and small embedded storms moving west in north Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a slight chance tonight that Gainesville could see a shower or two before dawn.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a possible stray shower before dawn and a morning low near 75. Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies with a good chance of showers and storms and a high near 89.

I'll try to post updates when possible on Twitter and, if necessary, on the blog.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Forecast for Friday 07.17.2009

It's been a few days since I have made my last forecast. It was the weekend mess, an early morning trip and lack of sleep and focus that has kept me from the metaphorical forecast desk. Now, I am back.

A developing cold front is expected to move towards the area later on Friday, but not be a direct impact to the Gainesville area. NWS-JAX is calling for more of an impact in the Georgia area, leaving rain chances relatively low for us. Also, a strong southwest flow should keep the east coast seabreeze pinned to the coastline. Model guidance doesn't show anything too interesting impacting GNV on Friday.

I think if we get any storms, the will come from the west and southwest and could have an impact in the late morning or early afternoon.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a morning low near 74. Friday, expect partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 92.

Check back tomorrow night for the next forecast. I'll be watching the front to see how this will impact the weekend. Plus there is one wave in the tropical Atlantic with a low immediate concern for development. I'll be watching that, too.

Keep an eye on my Twitter updates for the latest Gainesville weather.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 07.11.2009

Friday started off as a very nice day with partly cloudy skies and it wasn't too humid outside. Things wouldn't stay this nice. At around 4 p.m., NWS-Jacksonville radar showed a seabreeze front coming from the east, an outflow boundary coming from the north and a line of showers and storms creeping from the south. I started to think of the possibility of heavy rain coming to Gainesville. Sure enough, by 6 p.m., the rain started to fall. At around 6:15, the sky opened up.

By the way, photos of the flooding and sunset are up on my photo/general blog.

The weather will change a little starting Saturday. NWS-JAX is expecting most of the weather to remain inland due to diurnal heating inland and seabreeze interactions. It seems that any synoptic forces will not come into play for the NWS-JAX service area. HPC short term forecast maps show a stationary front to the south. JAX is calling for a slim chance of rain (30 percent). GFS and NAM guidance show very light precip over the peninsula Saturday.

For tonight, clearing skies with a chance of fog and a morning low near 68. On Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 89.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 07.09.2009

It has been a rainy day for most of north and central Florida today. Is it over yet? Nope. There are still at least a few more days left to deal with the rain.

Currently, radar shows spots of showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Georgia and northern Florida with a line of light rain going through Marion County.

NWS-JAX is thinking that, due to the sharpening of the upper-level trough to the north, that the front to start to move south by the end of the week. HPC's short term forecast graphics indicate this with the front near the Florida-Georgia border at around 8 p.m. Thursday. NAM guidance shows more precip over the area than the GFS (similar to yesterday's guidance run). So, it appears to be the same song and dance as today.

Tonight, mostly to partly cloudy skies with a chance of rain and a morning low near 70. It's currently 73 in Gainesville and with the models calling a low of 73, with obviously 6 hours of nighttime left and skies expected to clear, I think the temp will get lower than predicted. For Thursday, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 87.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 07.08.2009

It was, once again, an on and off rainy day in Gainesville with the first batch of rain coming mid-morning and the second batch in the afternoon. Since then, Titletown has been under mostly cloudy skies.

It appears that this will be the same song and dance for Wednesday. Shortwave energy and instability is expected to increase according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. It doesn't appear that severe weather will be much of a risk due to lack of any substantial diurnal heating to make things more unstable. Like today, the timing of these storms should be pretty random.

The NAM guidance seems to spawn more precipitation in north Florida and the big bend at 8 pm Wednesday, but the GFS is being more conservative.

For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a shower and a low near 73. Wednesday, mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 84.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 07.07.2009

Today, Gainesville got most of its rain in the late morning and early afternoon, but things improved as the day and evening wore on.

A stalled out trough and front over the southeast will continue to linger on Tuesday and will pump in moisture into the area. "Upper level impulses" will aid in the development of thunderstorms according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. This random impulses will make forecasting specific timing of rain and storms will make predictions difficult. Also, severe weather risk will depend on the time of day of thunderstorm initiation (daytime heating helps). NAM guidance shows more rainfall near the area come Tuesday evening.

In other words, rain chances are good, but the timing of the rainfall is the $50,000 question.

For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a stray shower possible and a low near 74. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 86.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Forecast for Monday 07.06.2009

It has been a couple of days since I have done a forecast. The holiday weekend and other events have kept me away from the forecasting. Now, after a nice weekend, it's time to get back into the swing of things. I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend.

The dry period we have had for the last few days that has kept the weekend pretty nice will start to come to an end starting Monday. The ridge that has been shifting south and will continue to do so enhancing southerly flow and, therefore, increase moisture in the area. Also, a broad trough will develop to the north early this week and stall to the north. Rain chances will increase starting Monday (NWS-JAX is calling for 60 percent). The GFS is pointing out to heavy rain over north Florida Monday evening while the NAM guidance shows very little rain in the area.

At least moderate instability is forecast in the area due to the previously mentioned setup according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, they have not (at this time) listed the Gainesville area at a slight risk of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts seems to be the primary threat.

For the rest of the night, skies becoming mostly cloudy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a low near 75. For Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of a showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.

Keep any eye on the Twitter feed for any late-breaking weather.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 07.02.2009

It didn't rain today! I was slightly surprised not to see rain this morning. Rain seemed to be over Marion County southward to Tampa Bay where enormous amounts of rain fell.

Right now, infrared satellite imagery shows warm cloud tops over the Gainesville area. Radar shows most of the rain over south Florida with the heaviest over Broward and extreme northern Miami-Dade counties. IR SAT shows convection dying down over south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. However, things should heat up. Dr. Steve Lyons from The Weather Channel notes a shortwave trough in the western gulf that will race through the area Thursday and it should heighten chances of rain. Also, the band of moisture is expected to slide back to the north towards the area. There will be some sun expected and diurnal heating could add fuel to the fire and create scattered showers and storms. NWS-JAX says that some could be strong with some gusty microbursts possible with an isolated severe storm. NWS-JAX is calling for a 50-50 shot of rain in Gainesville on Thursday. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed tomorrow for the latest weather info.

For tonight, mostly cloudy with a slim chance of rain and a low near 72. For Thursday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.

Tomorrow night, I will give a sneak peak to the Independence Day holiday.