FORECAST FOR THESE TYPE OF EASTERN PERIPHERY UPPER RIDGE PATTERNS [which we are currently under] IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE IMPORTANCE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN POP DISTRIBUTION AND STORM SEVERITY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODELS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z [8 a.m. today] AND BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL PLACE IT OVER SOUTH GA BY 18Z [2 p.m. today] WITH GREATEST FORCING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION. DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A GOOD EAST COAST SEABREEZE WITH LESS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS WILL BE INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END SCT.However, NWS-JAX has lowered rain chances for Gainesville to 20 percent. I haven't seen the skew-t readings from KJAX yet, so I am not sure how strong the CAP is today or how unstable things are. Keep an eye on the twitter page, I guess.
Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Quick Weather Update
Snippet from NWS-JAX latest AFD: