Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 06.17.2009

Being in Florida makes you feel HOT, HOT, HOT! I was not sure if it was going to rain today, but it seems that the CAP was able to be broken today and storms (mostly south of Gainesville) were able to be really fired up earlier this evening. There was plenty of energy out there today, but if the CAP can't be broken, good luck.

Wednesday's rain chances might be close to the same. NWS-JAX didn't seem to give much detail into tomorrow in their latest AFD. I'm thinking at this point that conditions will be about the same. The HPC synoptic outlook has surface high pressure still hanging around the Gulf of Mexico. GFS and NAM models also have this thing reaching in the mid and upper levels (see GFS graphic below). The north flow from the ridge and the CAP that we have had will be back in place. Some lift - either from a sea breeze front or outflow boundaries from storms - will aid things, as well as some hot and moist "energy" to kick things.


Wednesday morning (12Z) GFS 500-mb forecast. (Source: Unisys Weather)



Surface map of the southeast showing the high in the gulf. (Source: NOAA)

In other words, things look to be the same Wednesday as they did today.

For tonight, some clearing with a morning low near 72. Wednesday, expect the same song and dance: partly cloudy and HOT with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. I'm calling for a high near 94.

Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest (twitter.com/daweathaman).

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