Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 06.28.2009

Gainesville had a few quick showers earlier today with a few heavy showers on the east side of town and Alachua County. Afterwards, it was a relatively nice day.

Tomorrow morning, a disturbance could cause showers and storms to fire up near Apalachee Bay overnight and spread inland according to NWS-JAX's latest AFD. For the rest of the day, deep west flow will suppress the east coast seabreeze and keep temps pretty warm over the area. NWS has rain chances near 30 percent for the Gainesville area.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms near dawn. The morning low should be near 74. Sunday, partly cloudy with a chance of storms in the afternoon and a high near 95.

TROPICS

There is a cluster of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave east of the Yucantan Peninsula in the Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Over the last couple of days, the system has had flare-ups in convection (mostly diurnal). The NHC has given this wave less than a 30 percent chance of development during the next two days as they expect it to move over the Yucantan and exit to the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on its direction for the next few days. At least a couple of models have the system move east towards Florida, but most other models have it moving west towards south Texas or Mexico. The system has yet to become a closed low, but wind shear remains relatively low at this point.


Source: NOAA/NHC (Infrared satellite image of wave in Caribbean Sea at 10:45 pm Saturday)

However, no matter what happens, Florida could see some increased moisture from this as early as Monday. A front is expected to approach the area as early as Sunday night. This would pull any moisture from the storm and stream it towards us. NWS-JAX probabilities for precipitation (POPs) reflect the expectation starting Monday (60 percent). The NAM model guidance seems to predict more rainfall than the GFS Monday evening.

Check back tomorrow night to see the latest forecast.

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