Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.29.2009

Currently, a strong cluster of storms that brought strong winds, a possible tornado and caused power outages in Tallahassee/Leon County area has deteriorated and is moving southeast. NWS-JAX radar is showing a line of light to moderate rainfall from High Springs west to Dekle Beach in Taylor County. East Alachua County could see some light rainfall tonight. Otherwise, I expect the Gainesville area to remain pretty quiet.

Things appear to change for the start of the week. Daytime heating, an approaching cold front and "attendant mid-level energy" will raise rain chances for the area Monday. Also, the tropical wave that I mentioned last night will funnel in moisture into our area, as well (more about the wave later). The NAM and GFSx models seem to bring in more rain for tomorrow eveningFlorida than the GFS. The flow of any storms should be northwest to southeast (similar to today).

Not sure if there will be much of a severe weather threat. I'll check the soundings tomorrow moring to get some clue on instability.

For tonight, a possible light shower. Otherwise, mostly cloudy then partly cloudy skies before dawn with a morning low near 76. Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.

TROPICS

The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (noted by meteorologists as "Invest 93L") is currently over the Yucantan Penisula. It looks rather disorganized and lacking deep convection. It it expected to move to the gulf waters. The models seem to go all over the place with this system. Wind shear is pretty low west of 85 degrees West Longitude. There is a slim chance of development within the next 48 hours, but it will be watched for the next few days. Stay tuned.

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