Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.15.2009

I hope everyone had a great weekend. The weather around Gainesville has mostly been calm except for Saturday afternoon. Apparently when I was driving to Orlando that afternoon, severe weather broke out over the Gainesville area dumping over an inch of rain in some spots along with 3/4-inch hail at some locations according to severe weather reports compiled by NWS-JAX. My rain gauge in southwest GNV picked up seven-tenths of an inch of rain Saturday. Sunday was quieter with partly cloudy skies.

However, things appear to change a little starting Monday. The ridge that has kept rain chances low the last few days is expected to move west over the Gulf of Mexico according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. A gradual return of deep-layer moisture will start to enhance rain chances for the area. Any convection will also be aided by surface convergence by a weak frontal trough and surface low (apparently to the north). Due to the lighter wind flow, west and east coast sea breezes will become more dominant. NAM and GFS indicate lighter flow from the north at 500 mb. Both NAM and GFS point out some rainfall over the interior of Florida in the evening.

For tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with clearing later on tonight (cloud cover from leftover thunderstorm complex that went through southeast today) with a morning low of 73. Monday, partly cloudy skies, hot with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Expect a high near 92.

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