Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.19.2009

Today looked to be a little busy for Gainesville, but not much so. Most of the action was to the east of town in the early afternoon and later on to the south. Also, Perry, Fla. was rocked hard with baseball-sized hail according to The Weather Channel.

Tonight, there is still a threat of showers and storms rolling through Gainesville. A cluster of storms (or technically known as a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS) is to the north of us over the Florida/Georgia border. The bulk of it is near Columbia County and points west and moving southwest. However, cells to the north of JAX are merging with left-over outflow boundaries and creating storms. These - if they hold - could make it to Gainesville in maybe four to five hours from now. Then again, there is a new line forming in Columbia and Baker counties that could make it here within a couple of hours. These could have strong winds and large hail with frequent lightning.


Source: WeatherTAP.com/Tap Publishing

The above radar image from 10:49 p.m. shows the storms to the north of GNV.

However, things might improve...sort of. The ridge that has been out to our west for some time is expected to move to the east closer to the state. This will move any MCS' or other waves of storms offshore and enhance the CAP over the area, limiting chances of rain. NAM and GFS, as well as HPC plots, show this nudge in the high to the right starting Friday. NWS-JAX has reflected this change in their zone forecasts with lower chances of rain and higher daytime temperatures (that's where the "sort of" comes from). Regardless, NAM and GFS models are still showing precip Friday evening. If the high does nudge over, I am going to have the discount the models on the precip predictions.

For tonight, expect a chance of a shower or storm roll in from the north. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 71. For Friday, partly cloudy skies and balmy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a high near 97. Take it easy outside on Friday.

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