Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 07.01.2009

It has been a very wet and rainy day in Gainesville. It's likely that I picked up at least an inch of rain since 12:01 this morning at my apartment while Gainesville Regional Airport received nearly 1/2-inch of rain. Things cleared out late in the afternoon, but skies remained pretty dreary for the most part.

Currently, skies remain partly cloudy over the Gainesville area. The only spot getting rain at the moment is Palm Beach County and points south with the heaviest in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. The cold front that helped instigate this weather was passing south Georgia this afternoon and is expected to make its way to north Florida (near the I-10 corridor) Wednesday morning according to NWS-JAX. There is a chance of showers and storms forming in the gulf in the morning and then swing by the GNV area like it did this morning. Both NAM and GFS guidance models show rain in north Florida around 8 a.m. The rain chances seem to drop tomorrow afternoon, but only to about 50 percent.

In nutshell:

- Front forecast to drift a little further south to N FL
- Chance of rain for Alachua County in the morning (similar to today)
- A 50 percent shot of rain for Wednesday
- Most of the rain later in the day seems to be more in the central Florida area.

Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain near dawn. Expect the morning low near 73. For Wednesday, chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. I'll call for the high to be near 92.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.29.2009

Currently, a strong cluster of storms that brought strong winds, a possible tornado and caused power outages in Tallahassee/Leon County area has deteriorated and is moving southeast. NWS-JAX radar is showing a line of light to moderate rainfall from High Springs west to Dekle Beach in Taylor County. East Alachua County could see some light rainfall tonight. Otherwise, I expect the Gainesville area to remain pretty quiet.

Things appear to change for the start of the week. Daytime heating, an approaching cold front and "attendant mid-level energy" will raise rain chances for the area Monday. Also, the tropical wave that I mentioned last night will funnel in moisture into our area, as well (more about the wave later). The NAM and GFSx models seem to bring in more rain for tomorrow eveningFlorida than the GFS. The flow of any storms should be northwest to southeast (similar to today).

Not sure if there will be much of a severe weather threat. I'll check the soundings tomorrow moring to get some clue on instability.

For tonight, a possible light shower. Otherwise, mostly cloudy then partly cloudy skies before dawn with a morning low near 76. Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.

TROPICS

The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (noted by meteorologists as "Invest 93L") is currently over the Yucantan Penisula. It looks rather disorganized and lacking deep convection. It it expected to move to the gulf waters. The models seem to go all over the place with this system. Wind shear is pretty low west of 85 degrees West Longitude. There is a slim chance of development within the next 48 hours, but it will be watched for the next few days. Stay tuned.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 06.28.2009

Gainesville had a few quick showers earlier today with a few heavy showers on the east side of town and Alachua County. Afterwards, it was a relatively nice day.

Tomorrow morning, a disturbance could cause showers and storms to fire up near Apalachee Bay overnight and spread inland according to NWS-JAX's latest AFD. For the rest of the day, deep west flow will suppress the east coast seabreeze and keep temps pretty warm over the area. NWS has rain chances near 30 percent for the Gainesville area.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms near dawn. The morning low should be near 74. Sunday, partly cloudy with a chance of storms in the afternoon and a high near 95.

TROPICS

There is a cluster of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave east of the Yucantan Peninsula in the Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Over the last couple of days, the system has had flare-ups in convection (mostly diurnal). The NHC has given this wave less than a 30 percent chance of development during the next two days as they expect it to move over the Yucantan and exit to the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on its direction for the next few days. At least a couple of models have the system move east towards Florida, but most other models have it moving west towards south Texas or Mexico. The system has yet to become a closed low, but wind shear remains relatively low at this point.


Source: NOAA/NHC (Infrared satellite image of wave in Caribbean Sea at 10:45 pm Saturday)

However, no matter what happens, Florida could see some increased moisture from this as early as Monday. A front is expected to approach the area as early as Sunday night. This would pull any moisture from the storm and stream it towards us. NWS-JAX probabilities for precipitation (POPs) reflect the expectation starting Monday (60 percent). The NAM model guidance seems to predict more rainfall than the GFS Monday evening.

Check back tomorrow night to see the latest forecast.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.26.2009

Currently, skies are mostly clear over the Gainesville area. There are showers over southwest Marion County and over Gilchrist County. These cells should rain itself out over time since there isn't any diurnal heating or many lifting to keep them sustained. Otherwise, no reason to worry about anything. There could be a possibility for fog in some areas according to NWS-JAX's latest forecast discussion.

Friday, the ridge to our west and a trough to our east will keep the northwest flow according to the NWS. However, GFS points to a very weak and variable wind flow for Friday. The weather seems to be pretty typical of Florida with seabreeze-spawned storms possible.

For tonight, mostly clear with possible fog and a morning low near 72. For Friday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 94. NWS-JAX is calling for a 30 percent chance of rain.

If anything seems to form nearby, I'm sure posts will be added on Twitter.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 06.24.2009

The weather today was way better than it has been the last few days. The backdoor cold front that passed overnight has brought drier air aloft and sinking air to decrease our rain chances. NWS-JAX in their forecast discussion states that the upper trough that is near is is expected to drift south tonight. Also, an inversion at 700 mb will help keep any possible rain at bay. The water vapor loop continues to show dry air aloft and I don't see too much of a change until at least Friday. Models show the ridge that had a grip over the state with all that heat continuing to move west.

For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 69. That's right, the 60s. The moisture content doesn't seem to be so high (hence how I can come outside and do this forecast) and could allow for better cooling. The low cloud cover helps, too. For Thursday, partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of a shower. Expect a high near 94. Like today, I don't expect it to be too humid like it was a few days ago.

Quick Update for Wednesday 06.24.2009

Good morning. Sorry for the lack of weather discussions. I've been slammed with projects and other things.

I can briefly say that the weather for today (Wednesday) will be a little better than it has been. The front that helped drop some rain in Gainesville and even some severe weather to the south has passed. The high behind the backdoor front will keep the air relatively dry aloft and limit rain chances today in Gainesville (10 percent).

For the rest of the day, expect partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of rain. Today's high should be near 95.

The Thursday's forecast should be issued this evening.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.22.2009

It was three degrees lower than I thought it would be in Gainesville today. I guess it's good that it didn't get that hot, but bad that my forecast was blown by three degrees.

I just took a walk outside and was baffled at the muggy "grossness" of the outdoors. It's 84 degrees at my apartment in southwest Gainesville and it's 11:30 p.m. It's probably a little worse in Tampa: Just saw a graphic on The Weather Channel showing the current dewpoint of 80 degrees in the Tampa Bay area.

Things might be slightly better Monday. NWS-JAX believes that heat indicies will not meet or exceed 110 degrees. "Shortwave energy," a trough and the sea breeze will slightly enhance the chances of rain for the Gainesville area Monday. However, it seems most of the energy and potential for severe weather remains south over central and southern Florida as the Storm Prediction Center placed the area under a slight risk. Also, the ridge that has been keeping our area hot and relatively dry is expected to move west over the next few days. This should lower the temps a little and bring rain chances back to near normal levels. The NWS has placed a 30 percent chance of rain for Gainesville on Monday.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 76. For Monday, hot, but not as hot, with a chance of a shower or storm. I expect a high near 96.

Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest noteworthy observations and weather updates (twitter.com/daweathaman).

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 06.21.2009

Today, the weather has been pretty balmy in Gainesville. Once you walk out the door, it hits you like a ton of bricks. Unfortunately, it looks as if it will stick around for Sunday. The strong ridge that is to our west is expected to remain. Currently, there is a weak trough running through the state from the north according to the latest forecast discussion from NWS-JAX. However, it appears that it might not be enough to break the CAP and spawn some showers and storms due to lack of low-level convergence or lift. The discussion stated that there could be some cooling aloft (which could help spawn rain/storms), but chances still seem low for any precipitation. So, expect the high temperatures to remain thanks in part to the sinking air from the ridge.

For tonight, expect very warm and humid night with partly cloudy skies. I'm calling for a low near 76. For Sunday, expect much of the same today with partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of storms. I'm calling for a high of 100.

The record high for Sunday was 100 degrees and was set in 1998 (that was the summer when Florida had extreme drought and wildfires). We might get close, approach it or barely exceed the century mark. High dewpoints will factor in to the temperature and increase the heat index, which could get as high as 109 degrees according to the NWS.

If you plan to be outside, drink plenty of water, wear light clothing and take frequent breaks. Statistically, most weather deaths are due to heat (Source: The Weather Channel).

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.19.2009

Today looked to be a little busy for Gainesville, but not much so. Most of the action was to the east of town in the early afternoon and later on to the south. Also, Perry, Fla. was rocked hard with baseball-sized hail according to The Weather Channel.

Tonight, there is still a threat of showers and storms rolling through Gainesville. A cluster of storms (or technically known as a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS) is to the north of us over the Florida/Georgia border. The bulk of it is near Columbia County and points west and moving southwest. However, cells to the north of JAX are merging with left-over outflow boundaries and creating storms. These - if they hold - could make it to Gainesville in maybe four to five hours from now. Then again, there is a new line forming in Columbia and Baker counties that could make it here within a couple of hours. These could have strong winds and large hail with frequent lightning.


Source: WeatherTAP.com/Tap Publishing

The above radar image from 10:49 p.m. shows the storms to the north of GNV.

However, things might improve...sort of. The ridge that has been out to our west for some time is expected to move to the east closer to the state. This will move any MCS' or other waves of storms offshore and enhance the CAP over the area, limiting chances of rain. NAM and GFS, as well as HPC plots, show this nudge in the high to the right starting Friday. NWS-JAX has reflected this change in their zone forecasts with lower chances of rain and higher daytime temperatures (that's where the "sort of" comes from). Regardless, NAM and GFS models are still showing precip Friday evening. If the high does nudge over, I am going to have the discount the models on the precip predictions.

For tonight, expect a chance of a shower or storm roll in from the north. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 71. For Friday, partly cloudy skies and balmy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a high near 97. Take it easy outside on Friday.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 06.18.2009

Today's weather wasn't that exciting in Gainesville today since with was sunny, hot, then cloudy towards the end with maybe a drop or two of rain. Most of the action was off to the southwest affecting parts of west central Florida. However, there is a east-to-west line of storms in south Georgia and north Florida (entering Baker and Columbia counties). I am not sure if it will reach Alachua this evening since it might make more of a southwest direction or fizzle out. NWS-JAX made a remark on this "supercell thunderstorm" and said it should be through the "southwest portion of the forecast area by midnight" (if it holds). See radar from 8:48 p.m. below.


Source: weathertap.com / TapPublishing

Thursday looks a little different with a better chance for storms. The NWS is expecting a lingering shortwave trough to push across the area and could enhance thunderstorm development. NWS-JAX is keeping rain chances at 40 percent. At the mid to upper levels, we will still be under the influence of the ridge and will continue to get a northerly flow. The Storm Prediction Center has Florida under a general thunderstorm risk for Thursday, not severe.

Tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of a storm (the one shown on the radar image above). Expect the morning low near 74. For Thursday, partly cloudy, hot as usual with a chance of showers and storms and a high near 94. Any storms we get will be coming from the north.

Quick Weather Update

Snippet from NWS-JAX latest AFD:
FORECAST FOR THESE TYPE OF EASTERN PERIPHERY UPPER RIDGE PATTERNS [which we are currently under] IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE IMPORTANCE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN POP DISTRIBUTION AND STORM SEVERITY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODELS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z [8 a.m. today] AND BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL PLACE IT OVER SOUTH GA BY 18Z [2 p.m. today] WITH GREATEST FORCING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION. DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A GOOD EAST COAST SEABREEZE WITH LESS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS WILL BE INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END SCT.
However, NWS-JAX has lowered rain chances for Gainesville to 20 percent. I haven't seen the skew-t readings from KJAX yet, so I am not sure how strong the CAP is today or how unstable things are. Keep an eye on the twitter page, I guess.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 06.17.2009

Being in Florida makes you feel HOT, HOT, HOT! I was not sure if it was going to rain today, but it seems that the CAP was able to be broken today and storms (mostly south of Gainesville) were able to be really fired up earlier this evening. There was plenty of energy out there today, but if the CAP can't be broken, good luck.

Wednesday's rain chances might be close to the same. NWS-JAX didn't seem to give much detail into tomorrow in their latest AFD. I'm thinking at this point that conditions will be about the same. The HPC synoptic outlook has surface high pressure still hanging around the Gulf of Mexico. GFS and NAM models also have this thing reaching in the mid and upper levels (see GFS graphic below). The north flow from the ridge and the CAP that we have had will be back in place. Some lift - either from a sea breeze front or outflow boundaries from storms - will aid things, as well as some hot and moist "energy" to kick things.


Wednesday morning (12Z) GFS 500-mb forecast. (Source: Unisys Weather)



Surface map of the southeast showing the high in the gulf. (Source: NOAA)

In other words, things look to be the same Wednesday as they did today.

For tonight, some clearing with a morning low near 72. Wednesday, expect the same song and dance: partly cloudy and HOT with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. I'm calling for a high near 94.

Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest (twitter.com/daweathaman).

Monday, June 15, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 06.16.2009

Gainesville got one quick shower this afternoon and only dropped 0.01 inches of rain today. Yea. That's it.

Expect a similar pattern of weather for Tuesday as it was today. NWs-JAX is expecting subsidence to increase as the upper ridge builds from the west. This will keep rain chances low and allow temps to remain high with heat indices between 100 and 105. NWS-JAX is calling for a 40 percent chance of rain for Tuesday while AccuWeather is calling for at least a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. NAM and GFS is showing some precip in interior Florida, but doesn't seem that strong.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a morning low of 73. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 95.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.15.2009

I hope everyone had a great weekend. The weather around Gainesville has mostly been calm except for Saturday afternoon. Apparently when I was driving to Orlando that afternoon, severe weather broke out over the Gainesville area dumping over an inch of rain in some spots along with 3/4-inch hail at some locations according to severe weather reports compiled by NWS-JAX. My rain gauge in southwest GNV picked up seven-tenths of an inch of rain Saturday. Sunday was quieter with partly cloudy skies.

However, things appear to change a little starting Monday. The ridge that has kept rain chances low the last few days is expected to move west over the Gulf of Mexico according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. A gradual return of deep-layer moisture will start to enhance rain chances for the area. Any convection will also be aided by surface convergence by a weak frontal trough and surface low (apparently to the north). Due to the lighter wind flow, west and east coast sea breezes will become more dominant. NAM and GFS indicate lighter flow from the north at 500 mb. Both NAM and GFS point out some rainfall over the interior of Florida in the evening.

For tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with clearing later on tonight (cloud cover from leftover thunderstorm complex that went through southeast today) with a morning low of 73. Monday, partly cloudy skies, hot with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Expect a high near 92.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 06.13.2009

It's been a few days since my last forecast. I was in Atlanta for a rare tour of The Weather Channel (thanks to Stephanie Abrams!) and for most of the Inland Impacts of Tropical Cyclones conference. I will have a post with some photos of the trip on the main blog sometime this weekend.

The weather today has been pretty calm in north Florida mostly due to high pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It has stave off any rain in the area and it's likely to be the case for Saturday.

A weak frontal trough will aproach the area from the north and may aid in spawning isolated afternoon storms according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. The NAM and GFS models point out some shower activity (mostly on the NE side of the state). I'm thinking it's less likely since NWS-JAX is calling for a 30 percent chance of rain for the GNV area.

For tonight, mostly clear conditions with a morning low of 72. For Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a shower and storm. I'm calling for a high of 94.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 06.09.2009

The weather has improved very slightly over the Gainesville area in the last three days. It hasn't rained Sunday or today, and it's a possibility of that to continue Tuesday.

Surface maps from the HPC show high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico bringing either a light west or north flow (been variable) to the area. A trough of low pressure is expected to remain near the area Tuesday, but moisture content should be lower according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion. Descending air should also limit rain chances for the area (keeping them near 20 percent). Therefore, partly cloudy skies should persist with a slight chance of showers and storms.

Tonight, some clearing is possible with a morning low near 69. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and storms. The high should be near 92.

I will be traveling to Atlanta early tomorrow morning to a special tour (more on that later) and the Inland Impacts of Tropical Cyclones conference. I'm tagging along with a professor at the UF Geography Department, two graduate students and one undergrad. I should be back in Gainesville late Thursday night. Check out my main blog (http://daweathamanroop.wordpress.com/) and my Twitter site (http://www.twitter.com/daweathaman) for updates. Forecasts should resume Friday night, if possible.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.05.2009

Friday should look a lot like today with showers and storms likely.

The shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico is still dragging its way east along with a frontal boundary in the southern Mississippi Valley. NWS-JAX is calling for the low move in Friday and stall out northwest of Gainesville Friday night. This will continue to funnel in moisture and keep rain chances high. The NAM seems to show heavy precip over the area, but the GFS forecast is tamer on rainfall. Nevertheless, expect high chances of rain for Friday.

Tonight, some clearing with a possible stray shower - morning low of 69. Friday, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms likely. The high should be near 83. The SPC is not calling for any severe weather, but any extra daytime heating could give enough instability for possbile strong gusts and small hail.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 06.04.2009

Gainesville got hit twice with rain today (once in the mid afternoon and again this evening). However, the weather for Thursday looks a little wetter.

Currently, there are a few light showers across north Florida, including one batch of light rain in Dunnellon and Rainbow Lakes Estates. All activity is moving towards the north. Since there's no more daytime heating, I expect these to rain themselves out.

An area of low pressure associated with a front near Louisiana is expected to keep moving west as well as a trough ahead of it in the Gulf of Mexico. Deep southerly flow will continue to pump moisture to Florida, which will keep rain chances high. There could be a chance of a strong storm, but that depends on how much daytime heating there is. HPC QPFs show rainfall rates for Thursday to be no more than an inch.

GFS shows precip over the area Thursday morning, but the NAM is calling for the heaviest at the same time.

For tonight, skies should be mostly cloudy with a stray shower possible. Expect a morning low of 67. Showers and a few storms are likely Thursday with a high near 82. Rain is possible in the morning, so be ready before you walk out the door to class or work.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 06.03.2009

Have you noticed how sticky it is outside? Well, that's Florida heat and humidity, and it's back.

The trend should continue tomorrow as the high pressure system to our northeast continues to move out to sea and funnel in tropical moisture. However, there will be another ingredient (from NWS-JAX):
VERY MUCH A TRANSITION DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SMALL BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA LATE WED AFTERNOON.
This should lead to higher chances of rain Wednesday. Also, NWS-JAX hinted at a possibility of strong to severe storms due to cooler temps at the 500 mb level. So far, the SPC has not caught on to this thought.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 70. Wednesday, partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Expect a high near 88.

If possible, blog updates could be given. Otherwise, keep tabs on my twitter feed.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 06.02.2009

It's been three forecast days, but I am back to forecasting.

You know all of this nice, low humidity weather we have been having? It's going away!

Tuesday is expected to be a transition day as a south to southwesterly flow takes over and brings in more moisture to the area. However, according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion, the rain chances for the area should be no higher than slight. The NAM and GFS models show very little precip across the state on Tuesday.

For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 68. You might notice an increase in moisture tonight as dew points are already in the 60s. Tuesday, expect partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of showers and storms. The high should be near 89.

Wednesday, moisture is expected to increase as well as rain chances. More on that tomorrow night.

By the way, today is the first day of hurricane season. Make sure you are prepared. Check out info on how to prepare from Ready.gov.