Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 05.20.2009

Rain, rain and more rain will be the story for the next couple of days as the current atmospheric setup is expected to remain mostly static.

Currently, a surface low remains near southwest Florida while the warm front (formerly stationary) is moving back north (see 8 p.m. sfc map below). The move of the front is reflected in Gainesville's current temps as they have increased slightly (62 deg as of 11 p.m.).

SE SFC


From looking at satellite imagery, the low is very broad and open with cloud cover extending out hundreds of miles to the east. Showers continue to move onshore with some of the heaviest over Bradford and Clay counties as well as eastern Marion County. East Central Florida will get a heavy batch of rain and a few thunderstorms as the hours wear on. Gainesville could soon get some action from the Bradford and Clay batch, but I am not certain on that at this point.

The low is expected to slowly move to the west Wednesday, but will continue to pump in moisture and keep rain chances very high. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and the low is expected to persist tomorrow and keep things breezy. The upper low over the gulf will too remain nearby until at least Thursday evening when some of the models have it dissipate.

For tonight, expect cloudy skies with periods of rain with an AM low near 63. Wednesday, the same rain song and dance tomorrow with a high near 75. With the warm front lifting through here earlier, I am a little more confident that the 58 degree weather at 4 p.m. in mid-May will be a thing of Monday and today.

The rain in Gainesville hasn't been as bad as other places. Reports of high precip amounts have come in, especially from southern Flagler County where they have received nearly 13 inches since the weekend. GNV Regional Airport only picked up 0.23 inches of rain through 6 p.m. today.

Things may begin to improve after Thursday, but I'll include more details as the time passes.

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