Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 05.19.2009

Before I go into tomorrow's outlook, let me discuss today. Holy cow, was it cold for May. The weather played a "switcharoony" today with a low of 59 and a high of 70 (as of 6 p.m.). But it's not what you think. The high of 70 degrees was around 9 a.m. while the low was at 6 p.m.

At 8 p.m., it was 58 degrees at the Gainesville Regional Airport. At 4 p.m., it was 60 degrees. I never thought I would see 60 degrees at 4 o'clock on a mid-May afternoon. It's also damp and cloudy at the same time. What gives?

Something that I didn't catch was the fact that this front would be so potent and that a upper-level trough would be bearing down bringing in cooler weather (trough shown below at 8 a.m. EDT Monday morning)

Upper Air at 8 a.m. EDT
Image Source: NCAR

The guidance models from last night didn't seem to catch this, either. The northerly breeze after the passage of the front aided in the cool feeling today.

Currently, the cold front is nearly stationary to our south with a surface low in the east central Gulf of Mexico. There is also an inverted trough near Florida's east coast according to the NWS-JAX's latest area forecast discussion. These disturbances are bringing light rain to our area, but some of the heaviest rain is off in south Florida, especially Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

The low that is in northern Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to move west and merge with the front and bring in more moisture and rain to the area. The NWS says NAM model predicts the closed low may move across south Florida while the GFS has the low entering through northeast Florida. There is also a slim chance that this low could form into a tropical (or sub-tropical) storm, although I think it's very remote at this point. At the upper levels, the trough that I mentioned earlier might become a cut-off low and sit in the eastern gulf for a few days. The NAM has this cut-off low forming in the gulf as early as tomorrow.

For tomorrow morning, things should be quiet but the rain may begin to return in the afternoon into the evening as the low towards our south begins to interact with the front and push it back towards our area.

Upper Air at 8 a.m. EDT
Forecast for 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday. Image Source: NOAA/HPC

So, in a nut shell (since I might have lost some of you), tonight should be calmer but cloudy with some lingering showers possible. Expect the AM low around 56 with breezy conditions. Due to the high to our north and the low to our south, expect the pressure gradient to keep it breezy. For Tuesday, cloudy in the morning with a chance of light rain followed by a good chance of rain sometime in the afternoon. If the front lifts back up soon enough, it should be a little warmer with a high of 70. Winds should continue to be around 15 mph with possible higher gusts.

It's going to be a wet week, but we need it. Stay tuned.

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