Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 04.14.2009

Some wicked weather is possible for Gainesville in the next 12 hours or more. However, I am more worried about what could happen before 7 a.m. Tuesday.

Currently, a low pressure system over Louisiana containing a warm front which is over Georgia and a cold front in Louisiana is funneling in moisture. This, along with instability and certain atmospheric dynamics, is bringing a slight risk for severe weather tonight for the northern and central part of the Florida peninsula. The storms should push into the area later tonight with a risk of damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for the area until 2 a.m.


Satellite Image as of 7:45 p.m. / ET Radar image as of 7:53 p.m. ET

The NAM guidance has the precip clearing out after 2 p.m. on Tuesday while the GFS has the last bit of rain around Gainesville at 5 p.m. For now, I would expect any rain to clear out of the area before dusk on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center seems to downplay any severe weather risk for Florida during the day.

So, out of all of this mess, here is the skimmy. Expect showers and thunderstorms later tonight. However, we could see a stray thunderstorm before the squall line gets here. Some may be severe with damaging winds and hail. We are under a tornado watch until 2 a.m. The Tuesday morning low should be around 66. We have had tornado warnings issued to our east with very pronounced tornadic signatures on radar.

During the day, we should see some rain lasting for most of the day with a high of 79. The guidance models and the NWS are calling for a highs in the lower 80s, but I am a little weary of that since I am thinking the rain should keep things a tad cooler. Things should start to clear out tomorrow evening and night.

The rain will be heavy and I think Gainesville will get at least an inch of rain, but others may get more. Areas around the Suwannee, Santa Fe and Withlacoochee rivers are suffering from flooding will definitely get rain, even though they don't need any more. Despite this, NWS-JAX states that "it should not produce any significant change" according to their latest forecast discussion.

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