I hope everyone has had a great Easter and enjoyed some of the nice weather today. However, things look a little different for Monday. A warm front should push into the area and place the Gainesville vicinity in the warm sector during the day. Other factors, according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion, such as increased helicities and low-level jet dynamics will up the chance of severe weather on Monday. The SPC has north Florida on a slight risk category (as shown below).
The first mid-level shortwave trough will pass tomorrow afternoon, which will bring storms with a potential to be severe weather. However, this will not be it as the threat for storms continues through the night and Tuesday.
The NAM output is showing rain for north Florida only around 2 p.m. Tuesday. The GFS picks up activity around 5 p.m. Monday through 8 p.m. with heavier storms at 2 p.m. Tuesday. NOGAPS' 48-hr model points out activity Monday similar to the GFS.
In summary, tonight will be a little warmer with some clouds rolling in during the night from the west. I expect a Monday morning low of 62. During the day, I expect mostly cloudy a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe with a high of 83. In other words, bring an umbrella to work or campus.
For any severe weather updates with possible photos, check out my main blog: http://daweathamanroop.wordpress.com/