Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 04.30.2009

Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.

The same pattern that has been in effect for more than a week will remain, but a little less amplified according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion. Regardless, warm and mostly sunny weather will persist for the next few days.

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with the possibility of fog. The morning low should be around 59. For Thursday, mostly sunny skies should be the case with a high of 85.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 04.29.2009

It's the same song and dance for tomorrow for the Gainesville area. The ridge that has been dominant for over a week will remain and bring sunny and dry weather for Wednesday.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a morning low of 58. On Wednesday, I'm calling for mostly sunny skies with a high of 84.

The ridge is expected to weaken, but slightly. Don't expect enough instability to increase rain changes this weekend.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 04.28.2009

I am sitting outside on my laptop right now not because it's really cool outside, but it's actually cooler than the inside of the apartment. Mysteriously, our AC decided to freeze up and now we have to open our windows and let the AC adjust itself.



The nice, clear conditions that I am seeing right now will, once again, persist for the next few days. The ridge is expected to keep its place and keep Florida dry and clear. The wind flow will primarily be out of the east for tomorrow, increasing the rip current threat for the eastern coastline.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a morning low of around 60. The guidance models seem to be accurately forecasting the temperatures so far. For Tuesday, I'm calling for mostly sunny skies with a high of 84. Any clouds in the skies will probably be low-level.

The ridge that is keeping us dry and warm is expected to weaken in by the weekend (see GFS 300mb Friday forecast below), but it might not be enough to bring any big chances of rain. The front that was expected to be near the area this weekend has been discounted by the latest model runs.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Forecast for Monday 04.27.2009

Once again, conditions are and expected to be the same tonight and tomorrow for Gainesville and vicinity. The ridge is expected to remain in place. The latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion notes of east to southeast winds of 15-20 mph. Fog is still possible in the area.

For tonight, mostly clear with a chance of fog and a morning low of 59. For the day, expect mostly sunny skies and breezy with a high of 84.

Things expect to change later in the week as the high expects to weaken and more moisture is expected to return. We might see some rain in the forecast as early as early as Friday. I'll know more when as time gets closer.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 04.26.2009

The weather tomorrow seems to be a carbon copy of the last few days. The ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic is dominating our weather in the eastern U.S. The high will bring an easterly flow to the Gainesville area.

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with possible fog. The Sunday morning low should be around 57. For the day, skies should be mostly sunny with a high of 86.

In the long run, upper-air forecasts show the ridge in the east to remain in place at least until Thursday. Then again, it might be longer. Therefore, no rain in the forecast in the area for the next five days.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Forecast for Friday 04.24.2009

Well, today was nearly picture perfect weather. Guess what? It's going to be the same tomorrow. It seems now that the eastern U.S. is gripped under a ridge of high pressure, which is centered in the eastern Atlantic. This is expected to keep Gainesville and vicinity very dry and warm.

For tonight, expect clear skies with a possibility of fog. I'm calling for a morning low near 58. Sunny skies for Friday with a high of 89.

This dry and warm weather seems to be a big play for the next week as the ridge is expected to remain in place.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 04.23.2009

High pressure is currently dominating our weather in the Gainesville area. Its position is bringing a north to northwest flow, which is keeping things slightly on the cool side. This will last into the night. However, there could be the possibility of fog according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. The current synoptic pattern will continue tomorrow and bring mostly sunny skies.

For tonight, mostly clear skies w/ the possibility of fog. The morning low should be around 53. During the day Thursday, expect mostly sunny skies with a high of 86.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 04.22.2009

A weakening cold front is currently over the Florida panhandle and moving south. The front is expected to pass near the Gainesville area in the morning. However, very little instability exists over the area. The weather should remain like it was today with low humidity.

Some clouds (which is currently seen on infrared satellite) might move over the area as the weak front nears. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies tonight with a Wednesday morning low of 54. For the day, expect partly cloudy skies with a high of 80.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 04.21.2009

After a rainy and dreary day for Gainesville, things will start to clear up. The front that brought showers and a few rumbles of thunder earlier today is currently east of Tallahassee and is expected to move through the area soon. Winds should shift more from the west and also bring in some drier air.

For tonight, I expect some clearing late tonight into the morning with a low of 56. During the day Tuesday, expect mostly sunny skies with a high of 80.

The NWS-JAX forecast discussion is calling for a weak and deteriorating cold front to pass through tomorrow night, but should not produce much in the way of rain. The next few days should be very nice.

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Forecast for Monday 04.20.2009

After a two-day hiatus, I am ready to forecast the weather. Currently, a system over Mississippi with an associated cold front will move towards the east overnight and approach the Gainesville area during Monday. Not much is showing up on radar over the southeast except north of the latitude of Macon, Ga. The NWS is calling for a 30 percent chance of storms tonight, but I think it could be less since I am not seeing any reason for heavy showers to form tonight. That could change tomorrow as the front gets closer. The HPC forecasts don't have the front passing the area until sometime after 8 p.m. Monday.

For tonight, I expect mostly cloudy skies with a morning low of around 65. The guidance output for GNV has the lows in the lower 60s, but I think the earlier-than-expected cloudcover will help keep things a little warmer tonight. There might be a stray shower overnight. For Monday, I expect a good chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm. However, there isn't enough dynamics to warrant a severe weather risk. Expect a high of 78.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Forecast for Friday 04.17.2009

The weather for Friday will look a lot like today's nice weather. High pressure will continue to dominate our weather and provide mostly clear skies with a persistent northeast flow. However, a storm system is expected to roll in the area sometime on Sunday. More on this storm system will be given as time nears.

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a Friday morning low of 52. During the day, expect mostly sunny skies with a high of 78.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 04.16.2009

Sorry for the late forecast. I wasn't feeling too well late this afternoon, but I fell better now and ready to predict the weather.

The weather has been nice today over the Gainesville area and that is expected to continue for Thursday. High pressure currently centered over eastern Arkansas is influencing our weather. As it moves more south and east over the next 36 hours, winds should shift out of the northeast. Other than that, not much in the way of changing weather at least until Sunday.

Tonight, expect mostly clear conditions with a morning low of 48. The guidance models are aiming at the lower 50s, however the 9 p.m. GNV observation shows a temperature drop of 7 degrees in one hour. After this and noting clearing skies and light winds, I am calling for a lower temp. During the day Thursday, expect sunny skies with a high of 78.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 04.15.2009

The rain ended a lot earlier than I expected, but cloud cover remained over north Florida throughout the day. Infrared satellite imagery shows the western edge of the cloud cover around Taylor and Dixie counties. Things should start to clear out tonight as the front passes over Gainesville. The dreary weather of today will be replaced with mostly clear skies later tonight and Tuesday.

Expect clearing tonight with lighter winds and Wednesday morning low of 54. For Wednesday, anticipate mostly sunny skies with a high of 77.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 04.14.2009

Some wicked weather is possible for Gainesville in the next 12 hours or more. However, I am more worried about what could happen before 7 a.m. Tuesday.

Currently, a low pressure system over Louisiana containing a warm front which is over Georgia and a cold front in Louisiana is funneling in moisture. This, along with instability and certain atmospheric dynamics, is bringing a slight risk for severe weather tonight for the northern and central part of the Florida peninsula. The storms should push into the area later tonight with a risk of damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. A tornado watch is in effect for the area until 2 a.m.


Satellite Image as of 7:45 p.m. / ET Radar image as of 7:53 p.m. ET

The NAM guidance has the precip clearing out after 2 p.m. on Tuesday while the GFS has the last bit of rain around Gainesville at 5 p.m. For now, I would expect any rain to clear out of the area before dusk on Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center seems to downplay any severe weather risk for Florida during the day.

So, out of all of this mess, here is the skimmy. Expect showers and thunderstorms later tonight. However, we could see a stray thunderstorm before the squall line gets here. Some may be severe with damaging winds and hail. We are under a tornado watch until 2 a.m. The Tuesday morning low should be around 66. We have had tornado warnings issued to our east with very pronounced tornadic signatures on radar.

During the day, we should see some rain lasting for most of the day with a high of 79. The guidance models and the NWS are calling for a highs in the lower 80s, but I am a little weary of that since I am thinking the rain should keep things a tad cooler. Things should start to clear out tomorrow evening and night.

The rain will be heavy and I think Gainesville will get at least an inch of rain, but others may get more. Areas around the Suwannee, Santa Fe and Withlacoochee rivers are suffering from flooding will definitely get rain, even though they don't need any more. Despite this, NWS-JAX states that "it should not produce any significant change" according to their latest forecast discussion.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Forecast for Monday 04.13.2009

I hope everyone has had a great Easter and enjoyed some of the nice weather today. However, things look a little different for Monday. A warm front should push into the area and place the Gainesville vicinity in the warm sector during the day. Other factors, according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion, such as increased helicities and low-level jet dynamics will up the chance of severe weather on Monday. The SPC has north Florida on a slight risk category (as shown below).



The first mid-level shortwave trough will pass tomorrow afternoon, which will bring storms with a potential to be severe weather. However, this will not be it as the threat for storms continues through the night and Tuesday.

The NAM output is showing rain for north Florida only around 2 p.m. Tuesday. The GFS picks up activity around 5 p.m. Monday through 8 p.m. with heavier storms at 2 p.m. Tuesday. NOGAPS' 48-hr model points out activity Monday similar to the GFS.

In summary, tonight will be a little warmer with some clouds rolling in during the night from the west. I expect a Monday morning low of 62. During the day, I expect mostly cloudy a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe with a high of 83. In other words, bring an umbrella to work or campus.

For any severe weather updates with possible photos, check out my main blog: http://daweathamanroop.wordpress.com/

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 04.12.2009

The cold front that is to our north is forecast to move south of Gainesville tonight will bring slightly cooler weather in the short term with mostly clear skies. The weather during the day Sunday will be mostly sunny with slightly breezy conditions.

In a nutshell, look for mostly clear skies with a Sunday morning low of 58. Expect mostly sunny skies during the day with a high of 81.

Sunday night, the cold front that passed us will move back towards the north as a warm front. This will place us in the warm sector and would bring a chance rain and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. In fact, the SPC has north Florida under a slight risk category for severe weather. There will be more on that as time gets closer.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 04/11/2009

The weather will change tomorrow with a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Gainesville and vicinity. The same storm system that has the southeast on edge with a high risk of severe weather (yes, I said "high risk") today and tonight will drag a cold front down to north Florida Saturday afternoon. However, we will not have the dynamics like our friends have a few hundred miles north and our chances of severe weather seem to be low. The front is expected to shift south of our area Sunday.

In a nutshell, tonight looks nice but a little warmer than it has been. I expect a Saturday morning low of 63. Saturday looks to be a partly cloudy day with a chance of showers and storms with a high of 84. I would keep an eye to the sky if you have any outdoor plans.

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Forecast for Friday 04.10.2009

Currently, high pressure to the east (centered just east of the Bahamas) is bringing a southerly flow to the area. This pattern of warmer temperature and fair skies will continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. So far, the GFS and NAM are on target with the temperature forecast. I am going for fair skies tonight in Gainesville with a Friday morning low of 55. Expect partly cloudy skies for Friday with a high of 85.

From looking at discussions and forecast maps, a cold front is expected to approach the area Saturday. However, the dynamics probably will not be enough for any heavy precipitation with QPFs predicting no more than a tenth of an inch of rain Saturday. More on this when Saturday's forecast is released.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

First Forecast, Post - 04/08/2009

Good evening! This is a new thing I am trying out, so hopefully it works. This is strictly a weather forecast blog for the Gainesville, Fla. area. Every evening or morning, expect a post here with my weather forecast for the next 24 hours with possible insight into beyond day one. This will keep you informed on what to expect and keep my forecasting skills as sharp as possible. During severe weather situations, check my main blog (http://daweathamanroop.wordpress.com) for more details and the latest with possible photos. So, here we go!

High pressure is currently influencing our weather in north central Florida, which is keeping our weather fairly nice this evening. Winds are mostly out of the south and southwest across the southeast, which will allow temperatures to warm for the next few days. High pressure is expected to move to the east tomorrow and keep the southerly flow.

So far, the GFS and NAM models are warmer than the actual temperature at 8 p.m. in GNV, and predicting a low of 45 and 47 respectively. I am wondering if the model predictions would be blown because of the early cool down. Still, I expect temperatures to be warmer than this morning's record low of 34 in Gainesville. I'll call for a Thursday morning low of 44 with fair skies thinking that the rise in dew points and light breeze will help keep the radiational cooling in check. The sun will be out Thursday with little cloud cover and a high of 80. For the next few days, I do not see drastic changes in the forecast. However, there could be a chance for showers and storms Monday and Tuesday as a cold front and upper-level trough is expected to move into the area according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion.

Check back tomorrow evening for the next forecast. I'll try to post these up by 11 p.m.