Daweathablog

Charles E. Roop giving his own forecasts, weather discussions, photos and adventures for the Starkville, MS area, Florida, and beyond.

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Severe Weather Threat for Wednesday

I think good 'ol El Nino is starting to flex its muscle on our weather patterns. It's only going to become more frequent, so get used to it.

Our first severe weather potential system is on its way to north central Florida starting tomorrow. This evening, me and another UF-AMS member discussed at the meeting the setup for the storm system which is churning in the Gulf of Mexico.

What's happening now...



A deepening surface low is in place with an associated warm front and stationary front over the western Gulf of Mexico. Infrared satellite imagery shows moderate convection in the gulf while radar shows rain streaming into the Florida panhandle, Georgia and Alabama. Radar also shows rain - associated with an upper-level low - over eastern Texas moving into Louisiana.

Wednesday...

Models have the upper-low over Texas open up and move towards the northeast along the subtropical jet stream. This should aid in negative tilting in the upper-levels and help support instability (more about negative tilting). At the surface, the warm front to our south will move north later and will place the area in the warm sector. NWS-JAX notes that the surface low in the gulf should be in southern Mississippi by 7 a.m. EST. Short-range forecasts have the low racing off to the northeast.

It's looking like the squall line that would bring the worst weather should arrive sometime in the afternoon, but leave the Gainesville area before 8 p.m.

The primary threat seems be strong winds with thunderstorms, including threat a of bow-echoed storms. A low-level jet of nearly 60 knots will also keep the threat of severe weather alive. This is all despite the fact that very little insolation is expected and is one limiting factor for instability.

As of now, the Storm Prediction Center has most of Florida under a slight risk category for Wednesday. Things might change once I wake up in the morning. Therefore, keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest.

Forecast...

Mostly cloudy for Wednesday with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be severe with strong winds. It's a good day for a rain coat at UF. Storms should start to clear out later in the evening.

Stay informed, and be safe!

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Kickoff Forecast: Florida at South Carolina

It's been a rough week and a half, but I am back into the forecasting game and I start off with today's college football game with Florida at South Carolina. Here's a look into the future (weatherwise).

Currently...
High pressure currently dominates the weather over the southeast as it sits over the central gulf coast with the pesky low sitting off shore of North Carolina. Isobars (lines of equal barometric pressure) show a slight pressure gradient, but winds seem relatively light inland. Temps are currently in the 60s in the area with fair skies being reported at Columbia Owens Downtown Airport.

Forecast...
The low over the Atlantic will slowly move out to sea through the end of the weekend. The pressure gradient will be weaker with NWS-Columbia calling for light winds today and tonight (maybe at 6 mph at the most from the west near kickoff time). Current weather conditions will persist and the weather should be very nice for today and tonight.

Kickoff (3:30 pm EST)...
Look for a temperature near 74 and mostly sunny with some upper-level cloudiness and light winds out of the west. Temps should be in the low 60s when the game ends this evening.

Go Gators!

Friday, October 23, 2009

Kickoff Forecast: Florida vs Mississippi State

Here's another gameday forecast for a Florida game. This time, it's an away game at Mississippi State in Starkville.

Now (in Starkville)...
A cold front has passed the area and is currently over eastern Alabama. Winds are mostly out of the west across the region with temperatures in the 50s.

Saturday...
High pressure to the southwest and a west to northwest flow should help keep conditions really nice for the next couple of days. Models seem to indicate highs in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s for Saturday night / Sunday morning.

Kickoff...
With kickoff at 7:30 PM ET, the temperature should be near 56 with mostly sunny skies with temperatures falling quickly afterwards. In other words, jacket weather.

Those going to the game: Have fun, be safe, and Go Gators!

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Cooler Weather is Here!

Just got back in town from Orlando this evening after leaving Gainesville Friday to temps well above normal and very muggy. When we arrived in town, the temperature difference was highly noticeable. I was almost shocked. It has been so long since it has been this nice.

Now...

It's 52 degrees at Gainesville Regional Airport at the moment and 55 degrees at my apartment in southwest Gainesville. The cold front that passed Friday is just south of the Florida Keys while the low is offshore near 30 degrees north latitude. Dewpoints remain really low (in the 40s) with winds mostly from the northwest in inland Florida and points north. There is some high cloudiness to our north over southern Georgia.

Tonight...
Clear skies are over Gainesville with temps in the 50s, but the winds at 15 mph (sustained, 25 mph gusts at KGNV), it feels colder. The cloudcover over south Georgia is on it's way towards the area (it can been seen on the infrared satellite imagery and the last few frames of the visible).

There are two things that can make this forecast tricky tonight:

1) The wind. Wind may make it FEEL cold, but it could help keep the air temperature warmer than it would be if the winds were calm. This is because winds stir up any heat at the surface can keeps radiational cooling in check.

2) Cloudcover. This also keeps radiational cooling in check. It helps keep heat remaining in the troposphere (where all the weather occurs in the atmosphere) to escape back into space. In other words, cloudcover acts as a blanket over us and helps keep things warmer than it would be with clear skies.

NWS-JAX is calling for 41 tonight in Gainesville. However, am beginning to question this forecast a little. Cloudcover to our north may dissipate (as it is starting to show in the IR sat imagery). However, guidance models seem to have winds remain at around 10 knots (11.5 mph).

For tonight, partly cloudy skies for later on. Otherwise, mostly clear. I'm going to be slightly conservative at the moment and call for a low near 44.

If you plan on celebrating the win against Arkansas tonight (WoOt, Gators!) or going downtown, bring a nice coat.

Sunday looks really nice with clear skies and a high near 65. Sunday night might be the coldest night of during this spell. I'll post my predictions tomorrow evening on Twitter and Facebook.

Sunday, October 11, 2009

WHERE'S FALL??????

So, yea. For over a week, Florida has been under some ungodly weather for this time of year. Let's put things into perspective of where things should be in our area...

- Fall is usually considered in Florida when the average daily minimum temperatures fall below 60 degrees F. In Gainesville, it usually happens the second or third week of October (Winsberg, 2003). It's week two (approaching week 3) and we're still mostly in the 70s.
- The normal low for this morning is 61 (NOAA). It was 69 with dewpoints in the upper 60s.

In other words, it's been terrible.

What is happening now...
A stationary front is over the area with temps mostly in the 80s with showers and storms around the area. However, based on surface observations and the NWS-JAX discussion, the front appears to be diffused.

Next couple of days...
Fog could be an issue tomorrow since low-level moisture persists with the possibility of temperature inversions at some spots. On Monday and Tuesday, the HPC notes a wave of low pressure to move along the front (as it moves north during the next two days). Guidance models (NGM and GFS) show a continued surface and 850mb-level SE flow and should continue to bring in moisture. NWS-JAX notes that favorable dynamics aloft and shortwave energy could enhance thunderstorm development with a chance of a few strong ones. They have left the area at a 50-50 chance of rain Monday and 40 percent Tuesday.

Later this week...
It looks like the awful heat has a chance to vamos this weekend. A developing low is expect to bring the front back north. This low should be amplified by a upper trough that guidance models are picking up on over the southeast. The frontal passage, which could be Friday night/Saturday based on HPC surface forecasts, could bring some cooler weather to the area. However, NWS-JAX is hinting at a severe weather risk based on the possibility of a southwesterly low-level jet and sufficient instability. Time will tell whether this holds up - it's a little too early to call that threat.

In a nutshell...
Hot and gross for the next few days. Friday, good chance of storms with a cooler temps this weekend. We'll see how this forecast holds up.

Keep an eye on my Twitter updates for the latest.

Sources: Winsberg, Morton D. "Florida Weather, Second Edition" University Press of Florida, 2007

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Kickoff Forecast: Florida at LSU

Good morning from balmy north central Florida. It's 84 at my apartment complex and partly cloudy. It looks like we might get a chance of a shower or two this afternoon per NWS-JAX forecast. But I'm not writing to talk about Gainesville's weather. It's time to scope in on Baton Rouge, Louisiana for tonight's Florida and Louisiana State football game.

Currently, NWS radar from Slidell shows a southwest to northeast line of showers moving east and the last of it is passing over Baton Rouge. This is associated with a cold front that passed this morning. However, NWS-New Orleans notes in their AFD that the "frontal trough bisects the area and has stalled." This would help set the stage for the front to move back northeast and would create an environment for showers and thunderstorms later today and this evening.

Both the 0Z (8 pm EDT) NAM and GFS runs seem to show high precip over the area around 8 p.m. However, I am waiting on the 12Z runs to see how what they show and might give another update later today. GFS precipitable water amounts seem to creep back up from the south near kickoff.

It looks like chances are good that we could see some rain during the game this evening as this front pushes back a little this PM. I think that KBTR will not be in the warm sector and temps will remain slightly cool (for Florida standards); therefore, the temps should be around 66 at kickoff.

Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers. Temp: near 66.


I'll be at home with Erin and a friend watching the game in HD. I'll also be watching the radar. Keep an eye on my Twitter account for updates.

Go Gators!!

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Summer in October

We had a nice shot of cold air last week, but now have it return back to this humid and hot weather - in October. What's the big deal?

For the last few days, the upper-air patterns have been locking colder air to the north and keeping the area pretty warm. Current 300-mb height maps show the jet stream to the north only bringing cooler air to parts of the northern Rocky Mountains and again over the central Great Lakes (per surface temperature map patterns).

(formula too complicated to put in "alt" tag

There is a high pressure system at the upper, mid and lower levels over the southeast and Gulf of Mexico. This is keeping things very warm, humid, but keeping rain chances relatively low for our area. The ridge is expected to move east over time and be out in the Atlantic waters Friday (models seem to be in agreement of this) and bring more of a southerly flow to the area.

Some amount of hope: NWS-Jacksonville is hinting at a cold front to approach the area and bring a chance of showers and storms to the area. One model, the ECMWF, is pushing the front to the south of Gainesville and bringing some cooler and drier air. NOGAPS seems to indicate a high pressure influence over the area on Tuesday. Models also show the upper trough (dip in the jet stream) to be in the mid Atlantic states Tuesday.

The Climate Prediction Center is also indicating below normal temperatures six to 10 days out for the eastern seaboard.

Right now, model guidance (remember the word "guidance") seems to give us a clue to possible relief from this October summer the we in North Central Florida have been experiencing. I'll keep watching it.

In the meantime, things seem to remain pretty balmy with summer-like conditions. Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a low near 72. For Thursday, partly cloudy with a chance of a few stray showers. I'm expecting a high near 92. It will be moist with dewpoints hanging in the 70s and with precipitable water amounts near 2 inches.

Things may change in the next few days. Keep tabs on my Twitter account for the latest.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Gator Game Kickoff Forecast: Lexington, Kentucky

Today's forecast is for the metro area of Lexington, where the University of Kentucky will play the Florida Gators this evening.




Above is the latest surface analysis from the HPC. Over eastern Kentucky, a low pressure system that has dumped lots of rain and has put the metro area under a flash flood warning will slowly be moving east over time. This may sound like good news, but a closed upper low, which models show "opening up" to a upper trough tonight, will bring cooler air aloft. NWS in Louisville notes this could bring more instability and keep rain chances at a decent level this evening around kickoff. However, by later tonight, drier air should filter in and improve conditions.

Throughout the day, rain chances should remain high. At kickoff (6 PM EDT), there should be a good chance of rain with skies clearing out by midnight.

I am calling for a high near 74 in LEX with a temp at kickoff near 70.

Enjoy the game and stay dry. Go Gators!

UPDATE (10:30 AM EDT): Flash Flood Warning has been downgraded to a Flood Advisory by NWS-LMK. However, a Flash Flood Watch does remain in effect for the Lexington metro area.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Dude, Where's My Cooler Weather?

Okay, summer is over as Tuesday as we move to the autumn equinox here in the northern hemisphere. It's time for things to cool down...

...

*ahem*

...

...waiting.

However, our luck might change next week.

Currently, an mid-level ridge to the north is bringing in a ENE flow to the area. This dry air aloft will help keep rain chances low until at least Saturday. HPC surface forecasts show a backdoor front approaching the area and stalling out north of Jacksonville on Saturday. Also, as the high shifts, a west-southwest flow should aid in the increase of moisture. At least for the weekend, there could be as much as a 50-50 chance of rain.

At the beginning of the work week, HPC surface forecasts show a front passing through on Tuesday after a weaker front stalls near the area. Plus, jet stream forecasts show a trough dipping as far south as North Carolina during the same time period. This setup should (hopefully) bring some cooler and drier weather to North Central Florida.

GFSX guidance is calling for temps Wednesday and Thursday mornings to be around 60 with highs in the low 80s. It's just one model and it's five days away, so we'll wait and see. However, things look promising for a much-needed cool down in the Gainesville area.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

Same 'ol, Same 'ol...

It looks to be the same song and dance for the southeastern states for the next few days. An upper trough over northern New England and a ridge over the Great Plains seems to be locked in place according to the GFS and NAM forecast models for the next 48 hours. This will help keep the surface synoptic-scale systems in place through Friday night.

A cut-off low over far-eastern Texas, northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas will be in place, bringing a risk for flash flooding across that area. Both aforementioned models seem to have the low dissolve slowly after Saturday.

As for Gainesville, NWS-JAX mentions that "pieces of shortwave energy and deep moisture" is expected to move in for the next few days. Therefore scattered showers and storms will be probable for the next few days.

For Thursday and Friday, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high on Thursday near 87 with a high Friday near 89. The next few days should be pretty balmy and not-so-fall like.

There is some hope, however. The Climate Prediction Center is calling for below-average temperatures for the six-to 10-day outlook. The GFS starts to show a trough starting to dig a little south from Canada as early as Monday morning. Could this be the clue? We'll wait and see. I can sure use some real fall weather now.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Saturday NIght Weather Update

Gainesville got rain today, with a few moments of heavy rain. This was primarily during the Florida and Troy football game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium here in Gainesville. In the end, the rain didn't phase the Gators or the fans as UF won 56-6.

Currently, skies remain mostly cloudy with moderate rain occurring to our south. The rain is making a west to east track.

A quasi-stationary front is extending over the north Florida area as a stream of moisture continues to feed into the area according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion. A trough digging from the northeast to the south should help allow high rain chances for the next two days.

For Sunday, expect it to me more like today with NWS-JAX calling for rain chances near 70 percent. The high should be near 85.

Friday, September 11, 2009

Rain on the way for the weekend

It's been a while since my last weather blog post. School, work and life have seem to take over. Therefore, I have not had much time to focus and work on nightly forecasts. Therefore, this blog might up being a source for occasional updates on certain events (i.e. big change in weather patterns, weekly updates, significant events, approaching tropical weather, etc).

This weekend - yes, the same weekend as the Florida and Troy football game - there is a high chance of rain that could alter some tailgating plans.

Right now, a broad area of low pressure is sitting in the northern Gulf of Mexico (as shown below).



Surface forecast analysis, NAM and GFS models seem to show the actual low moving very little and not have a head-on impact of the area. However, a baroclinic zone is expected to develop and be near the west coast of Florida by 8 a.m. Saturday according to NWS-JAX's latest forecast discussion. A southwesterly flow from this baroclinic zone should help increase rain chances. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms seems to be the bet for Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable Water amounts of well over 2 inches should aid in rainfall development.

QPF's from the HPC for tonight thru Saturday night predict an inch or more of rain for the area.

Advice, especially for the game: be prepared for a drenching. If you are going to the game, have a raincoat on hand. NWS-JAX has rain chances for Gainesville on Saturday at 80 percent.

Keep an eye on my Twitter posts for more info.

Friday, August 28, 2009

Forecast for Today (Fri 08.28.2009)

I didn't get the chance to do a forecast last night, but I can give you an idea of what the weather should be like for the rest of today.

Radar sites show a line of showers and thunderstorms (see SE radar composite) moving ENE while other storms form south of that line. This appears to be wrapped around a upper-level low to the north. Once this rain passes later, conditions should improve with only a slight chance of a strong isolated storm. For now, the line of storms could impact the area late this morning or early afternoon.

For the rest of the day, a good chance of storms by mid afternoon, with only a slight chance of rain and t-storms later. Expect a high near 90.

I have classes during a three-hour block in the middle of the day. I'll post any updates on Twitter when possible.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 08.27.2009

Today, instability and upper-level influences aided in producing rainfall for much of north Florida. Most of the heaviest rain seemed to have went north or south of Titletown based on radar imagery from this afternoon.

Thursday should be more of the same. NWS-JAX notes a closed upper low should hang around the lower Mississippi valley for the next day. With daytime heating and a moist atmosphere, instability with enable a good chance of rain for tomorrow. NWS-JAX is calling for a 70 percent shot of rain for Gainesville.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a low near 70. Thursday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 88.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 08.25.2009

Good evening! Today's weather in Gainesville was a little different. It was hot, but not as bad as it could be in a typical Florida afternoon. The passage of the cold front yesterday helped keep things fairly dry over the North Central Florida area.

It seems that the front that has passed us is stationary over Central Florida (from just north of Cape Canaveral southwest to Bradenton). However, according to NWS-JAX, the building ridge will help force the front back towards the north and increase moisture and, therefore, rain chances Tuesday. NWS-JAX is noting a tropical wave approaching the area on Wednesday, but rain chances don't seem to reflect much of an impact. Will keep an eye on it. Still, Tuesday seems to possibly be a wet day as NWS-JAX has the rain chances for the area at 70 percent.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a low near 71. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. Expect a high near 89.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Forecast for Monday 08.24.2009

I know, I know, it has been a while since my last forecast. Okay, a long while. I've been neglectful towards this blog. Now, I have a desire to make sure I do my forecasts for the Gainesville, Fla. area on a more frequent basis. I know I am not going to be able to do one every night, but I should be able to do one as much as possible. And the new school year at UF is a great way to start it.

Currently, a rare summer cold front (which helped steer Hurricane Bill away from the United States) has pushed south over the area. The 8 p.m. EDT (0 Z) surface analysis shows the front boundary draped from Daytona Beach southwest to near Sarasota. Dewpoints in the area have dropped to the 60s, which makes the outdoors feel much more comfortable. It's already 73 degrees at Gainesville Regional Airport and temps could get lower tonight.

The warm, less moist trend should continue tomorrow with NWS-JAX only calling for a 10 percent chance of rain. Things might change come Tuesday as normal conditions resume (more on that Monday night).

For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 66. On Monday, expect partly cloudy skies with a high near 91.

It's good to be back forecasting. Catch you Monday night. Spread the word!

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 07.29.2009

STARBUCKS, GAINESVILLE, FLA - The City of Gainesville got just a tad of rain today - and that's about it. Points east and south got most of the rain as storms developed and moved east towards the east coast seabreeze.

Tomorrow looks to be the same song and dance as the deep southwest flow will continue to pump in moisture to the area. Any rain and storms could start as early as late morning. I expect the east coast sea breeze, like today, to slowly roll in later in the day and not be much of an influence to the Gainesville area. NAM guidance seems to have a lot of moisture to our west Wednesday evening as the GFS is a little conservative.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a low near 72. For Wednesday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms with a high near 90. NWS-JAX is calling for a 70 percent shot of rain.

Monday, July 27, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 07.28.2009

Well, I guess it was safe to say that my forecast was blown today. It seems like the Gainesville area ended up being in a dry zone where the rain fell far to the south and back north and west. It seems like just about anything goes around Gainesville anymore. I digress.

The trough that has been to the north and west for the last few days will begin to lift north as the Bermuda high takes hold of the area. This will continue the southwest flow. The east and west coast seabreezes will be the lifting mechanisms for tomorrow's storms, which NWS-JAX places the Gainesville area at 50 percent. This seems to be more of a logical percentage compared to the 70 percent chance given for today, but GNV never received a drop.

Tonight, skies should be mostly clear with a morning low near 71. For Tuesday, partly cloudy skies with a 50-50 chance of rain. Expect a high near 90.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Forecast for Monday 07.27.2009

It's good to be back forecasting after a week of being out of town for part of it and being sick for nearly six days.

The National Weather Service in Jacksonville (NWS-JAX) notices a shortwave though in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico moving towards the east. With high enough moisture content at the surface and aloft, this aid in spawning a few showers tonight, but a very low chance.

For Monday, there seems to be very little synoptic influence; therefore, a light southwest flow and east and west coast seabreezes will help develop afternoon showers and storms. NWS-JAX is forecasting a 70 percent chance of rain for the Gainesville area. NAM model guidance is aggressive with the amount of precip tomorrow evening while the GFS is toned down.

Tonight, partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of rain and a morning low near 71. On Wednesday, expect partly cloudy skies with a good chance of showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.

Forecasts to Resume Tonight

Hey, everyone (if anyone is still reading). From being gone in research assistance for two days last week to being ill, I've had my hands full and have not been "there" for forecasting. However, I'm feeling much better and should resume forecasting starting this evening. Check back!

So far today, scattered showers and storms are rolling in across north Florida - mostly in Marion County. All storms are moving northeast or east-northeast.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 07.18.2009

It was a dry Friday for Gainesville. Most of the rain remained either to the south or north of the area. However, things may change on Saturday.

The front that is to our north is expected to inch its way south and stall just to the north of the Georgia-Florida border. This will amplify rain chances for the Gainesville area on Saturday.

What is not 100 percent certain is the timing of the rain - will it come in the morning or later in the afternoon? If the rain arrives in the afternoon, this will affect the intensity of any storms due to daytime heating in the equation. Also, I am not seeing any visual clues of any small mid to upper disturbances (i.e. shortwave troughs, etc) in the model guidance on Saturday. So, for now, it's a wait-and-see game.

Currently, there are some showers and small embedded storms moving west in north Florida and in the Gulf of Mexico. There is a slight chance tonight that Gainesville could see a shower or two before dawn.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a possible stray shower before dawn and a morning low near 75. Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies with a good chance of showers and storms and a high near 89.

I'll try to post updates when possible on Twitter and, if necessary, on the blog.

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Forecast for Friday 07.17.2009

It's been a few days since I have made my last forecast. It was the weekend mess, an early morning trip and lack of sleep and focus that has kept me from the metaphorical forecast desk. Now, I am back.

A developing cold front is expected to move towards the area later on Friday, but not be a direct impact to the Gainesville area. NWS-JAX is calling for more of an impact in the Georgia area, leaving rain chances relatively low for us. Also, a strong southwest flow should keep the east coast seabreeze pinned to the coastline. Model guidance doesn't show anything too interesting impacting GNV on Friday.

I think if we get any storms, the will come from the west and southwest and could have an impact in the late morning or early afternoon.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a morning low near 74. Friday, expect partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 92.

Check back tomorrow night for the next forecast. I'll be watching the front to see how this will impact the weekend. Plus there is one wave in the tropical Atlantic with a low immediate concern for development. I'll be watching that, too.

Keep an eye on my Twitter updates for the latest Gainesville weather.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 07.11.2009

Friday started off as a very nice day with partly cloudy skies and it wasn't too humid outside. Things wouldn't stay this nice. At around 4 p.m., NWS-Jacksonville radar showed a seabreeze front coming from the east, an outflow boundary coming from the north and a line of showers and storms creeping from the south. I started to think of the possibility of heavy rain coming to Gainesville. Sure enough, by 6 p.m., the rain started to fall. At around 6:15, the sky opened up.

By the way, photos of the flooding and sunset are up on my photo/general blog.

The weather will change a little starting Saturday. NWS-JAX is expecting most of the weather to remain inland due to diurnal heating inland and seabreeze interactions. It seems that any synoptic forces will not come into play for the NWS-JAX service area. HPC short term forecast maps show a stationary front to the south. JAX is calling for a slim chance of rain (30 percent). GFS and NAM guidance show very light precip over the peninsula Saturday.

For tonight, clearing skies with a chance of fog and a morning low near 68. On Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 89.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 07.09.2009

It has been a rainy day for most of north and central Florida today. Is it over yet? Nope. There are still at least a few more days left to deal with the rain.

Currently, radar shows spots of showers and a few thunderstorms across southern Georgia and northern Florida with a line of light rain going through Marion County.

NWS-JAX is thinking that, due to the sharpening of the upper-level trough to the north, that the front to start to move south by the end of the week. HPC's short term forecast graphics indicate this with the front near the Florida-Georgia border at around 8 p.m. Thursday. NAM guidance shows more precip over the area than the GFS (similar to yesterday's guidance run). So, it appears to be the same song and dance as today.

Tonight, mostly to partly cloudy skies with a chance of rain and a morning low near 70. It's currently 73 in Gainesville and with the models calling a low of 73, with obviously 6 hours of nighttime left and skies expected to clear, I think the temp will get lower than predicted. For Thursday, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 87.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 07.08.2009

It was, once again, an on and off rainy day in Gainesville with the first batch of rain coming mid-morning and the second batch in the afternoon. Since then, Titletown has been under mostly cloudy skies.

It appears that this will be the same song and dance for Wednesday. Shortwave energy and instability is expected to increase according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. It doesn't appear that severe weather will be much of a risk due to lack of any substantial diurnal heating to make things more unstable. Like today, the timing of these storms should be pretty random.

The NAM guidance seems to spawn more precipitation in north Florida and the big bend at 8 pm Wednesday, but the GFS is being more conservative.

For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a shower and a low near 73. Wednesday, mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms likely. Expect a high near 84.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 07.07.2009

Today, Gainesville got most of its rain in the late morning and early afternoon, but things improved as the day and evening wore on.

A stalled out trough and front over the southeast will continue to linger on Tuesday and will pump in moisture into the area. "Upper level impulses" will aid in the development of thunderstorms according to NWS-JAX's latest discussion. This random impulses will make forecasting specific timing of rain and storms will make predictions difficult. Also, severe weather risk will depend on the time of day of thunderstorm initiation (daytime heating helps). NAM guidance shows more rainfall near the area come Tuesday evening.

In other words, rain chances are good, but the timing of the rainfall is the $50,000 question.

For tonight, mostly cloudy skies with a stray shower possible and a low near 74. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 86.

Sunday, July 5, 2009

Forecast for Monday 07.06.2009

It has been a couple of days since I have done a forecast. The holiday weekend and other events have kept me away from the forecasting. Now, after a nice weekend, it's time to get back into the swing of things. I hope everyone had a great Fourth of July weekend.

The dry period we have had for the last few days that has kept the weekend pretty nice will start to come to an end starting Monday. The ridge that has been shifting south and will continue to do so enhancing southerly flow and, therefore, increase moisture in the area. Also, a broad trough will develop to the north early this week and stall to the north. Rain chances will increase starting Monday (NWS-JAX is calling for 60 percent). The GFS is pointing out to heavy rain over north Florida Monday evening while the NAM guidance shows very little rain in the area.

At least moderate instability is forecast in the area due to the previously mentioned setup according to the Storm Prediction Center. However, they have not (at this time) listed the Gainesville area at a slight risk of severe weather. Damaging wind gusts seems to be the primary threat.

For the rest of the night, skies becoming mostly cloudy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a low near 75. For Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of a showers and storms. I'll call for a high near 89.

Keep any eye on the Twitter feed for any late-breaking weather.

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 07.02.2009

It didn't rain today! I was slightly surprised not to see rain this morning. Rain seemed to be over Marion County southward to Tampa Bay where enormous amounts of rain fell.

Right now, infrared satellite imagery shows warm cloud tops over the Gainesville area. Radar shows most of the rain over south Florida with the heaviest over Broward and extreme northern Miami-Dade counties. IR SAT shows convection dying down over south Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. However, things should heat up. Dr. Steve Lyons from The Weather Channel notes a shortwave trough in the western gulf that will race through the area Thursday and it should heighten chances of rain. Also, the band of moisture is expected to slide back to the north towards the area. There will be some sun expected and diurnal heating could add fuel to the fire and create scattered showers and storms. NWS-JAX says that some could be strong with some gusty microbursts possible with an isolated severe storm. NWS-JAX is calling for a 50-50 shot of rain in Gainesville on Thursday. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed tomorrow for the latest weather info.

For tonight, mostly cloudy with a slim chance of rain and a low near 72. For Thursday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.

Tomorrow night, I will give a sneak peak to the Independence Day holiday.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 07.01.2009

It has been a very wet and rainy day in Gainesville. It's likely that I picked up at least an inch of rain since 12:01 this morning at my apartment while Gainesville Regional Airport received nearly 1/2-inch of rain. Things cleared out late in the afternoon, but skies remained pretty dreary for the most part.

Currently, skies remain partly cloudy over the Gainesville area. The only spot getting rain at the moment is Palm Beach County and points south with the heaviest in Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. The cold front that helped instigate this weather was passing south Georgia this afternoon and is expected to make its way to north Florida (near the I-10 corridor) Wednesday morning according to NWS-JAX. There is a chance of showers and storms forming in the gulf in the morning and then swing by the GNV area like it did this morning. Both NAM and GFS guidance models show rain in north Florida around 8 a.m. The rain chances seem to drop tomorrow afternoon, but only to about 50 percent.

In nutshell:

- Front forecast to drift a little further south to N FL
- Chance of rain for Alachua County in the morning (similar to today)
- A 50 percent shot of rain for Wednesday
- Most of the rain later in the day seems to be more in the central Florida area.

Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain near dawn. Expect the morning low near 73. For Wednesday, chance of rain in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. I'll call for the high to be near 92.

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.29.2009

Currently, a strong cluster of storms that brought strong winds, a possible tornado and caused power outages in Tallahassee/Leon County area has deteriorated and is moving southeast. NWS-JAX radar is showing a line of light to moderate rainfall from High Springs west to Dekle Beach in Taylor County. East Alachua County could see some light rainfall tonight. Otherwise, I expect the Gainesville area to remain pretty quiet.

Things appear to change for the start of the week. Daytime heating, an approaching cold front and "attendant mid-level energy" will raise rain chances for the area Monday. Also, the tropical wave that I mentioned last night will funnel in moisture into our area, as well (more about the wave later). The NAM and GFSx models seem to bring in more rain for tomorrow eveningFlorida than the GFS. The flow of any storms should be northwest to southeast (similar to today).

Not sure if there will be much of a severe weather threat. I'll check the soundings tomorrow moring to get some clue on instability.

For tonight, a possible light shower. Otherwise, mostly cloudy then partly cloudy skies before dawn with a morning low near 76. Monday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 93.

TROPICS

The tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (noted by meteorologists as "Invest 93L") is currently over the Yucantan Penisula. It looks rather disorganized and lacking deep convection. It it expected to move to the gulf waters. The models seem to go all over the place with this system. Wind shear is pretty low west of 85 degrees West Longitude. There is a slim chance of development within the next 48 hours, but it will be watched for the next few days. Stay tuned.

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 06.28.2009

Gainesville had a few quick showers earlier today with a few heavy showers on the east side of town and Alachua County. Afterwards, it was a relatively nice day.

Tomorrow morning, a disturbance could cause showers and storms to fire up near Apalachee Bay overnight and spread inland according to NWS-JAX's latest AFD. For the rest of the day, deep west flow will suppress the east coast seabreeze and keep temps pretty warm over the area. NWS has rain chances near 30 percent for the Gainesville area.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms near dawn. The morning low should be near 74. Sunday, partly cloudy with a chance of storms in the afternoon and a high near 95.

TROPICS

There is a cluster of showers and storms associated with a tropical wave east of the Yucantan Peninsula in the Caribbean Sea that the National Hurricane Center is watching. Over the last couple of days, the system has had flare-ups in convection (mostly diurnal). The NHC has given this wave less than a 30 percent chance of development during the next two days as they expect it to move over the Yucantan and exit to the southern Gulf of Mexico. The models are split on its direction for the next few days. At least a couple of models have the system move east towards Florida, but most other models have it moving west towards south Texas or Mexico. The system has yet to become a closed low, but wind shear remains relatively low at this point.


Source: NOAA/NHC (Infrared satellite image of wave in Caribbean Sea at 10:45 pm Saturday)

However, no matter what happens, Florida could see some increased moisture from this as early as Monday. A front is expected to approach the area as early as Sunday night. This would pull any moisture from the storm and stream it towards us. NWS-JAX probabilities for precipitation (POPs) reflect the expectation starting Monday (60 percent). The NAM model guidance seems to predict more rainfall than the GFS Monday evening.

Check back tomorrow night to see the latest forecast.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.26.2009

Currently, skies are mostly clear over the Gainesville area. There are showers over southwest Marion County and over Gilchrist County. These cells should rain itself out over time since there isn't any diurnal heating or many lifting to keep them sustained. Otherwise, no reason to worry about anything. There could be a possibility for fog in some areas according to NWS-JAX's latest forecast discussion.

Friday, the ridge to our west and a trough to our east will keep the northwest flow according to the NWS. However, GFS points to a very weak and variable wind flow for Friday. The weather seems to be pretty typical of Florida with seabreeze-spawned storms possible.

For tonight, mostly clear with possible fog and a morning low near 72. For Friday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 94. NWS-JAX is calling for a 30 percent chance of rain.

If anything seems to form nearby, I'm sure posts will be added on Twitter.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 06.24.2009

The weather today was way better than it has been the last few days. The backdoor cold front that passed overnight has brought drier air aloft and sinking air to decrease our rain chances. NWS-JAX in their forecast discussion states that the upper trough that is near is is expected to drift south tonight. Also, an inversion at 700 mb will help keep any possible rain at bay. The water vapor loop continues to show dry air aloft and I don't see too much of a change until at least Friday. Models show the ridge that had a grip over the state with all that heat continuing to move west.

For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 69. That's right, the 60s. The moisture content doesn't seem to be so high (hence how I can come outside and do this forecast) and could allow for better cooling. The low cloud cover helps, too. For Thursday, partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of a shower. Expect a high near 94. Like today, I don't expect it to be too humid like it was a few days ago.

Quick Update for Wednesday 06.24.2009

Good morning. Sorry for the lack of weather discussions. I've been slammed with projects and other things.

I can briefly say that the weather for today (Wednesday) will be a little better than it has been. The front that helped drop some rain in Gainesville and even some severe weather to the south has passed. The high behind the backdoor front will keep the air relatively dry aloft and limit rain chances today in Gainesville (10 percent).

For the rest of the day, expect partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of rain. Today's high should be near 95.

The Thursday's forecast should be issued this evening.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.22.2009

It was three degrees lower than I thought it would be in Gainesville today. I guess it's good that it didn't get that hot, but bad that my forecast was blown by three degrees.

I just took a walk outside and was baffled at the muggy "grossness" of the outdoors. It's 84 degrees at my apartment in southwest Gainesville and it's 11:30 p.m. It's probably a little worse in Tampa: Just saw a graphic on The Weather Channel showing the current dewpoint of 80 degrees in the Tampa Bay area.

Things might be slightly better Monday. NWS-JAX believes that heat indicies will not meet or exceed 110 degrees. "Shortwave energy," a trough and the sea breeze will slightly enhance the chances of rain for the Gainesville area Monday. However, it seems most of the energy and potential for severe weather remains south over central and southern Florida as the Storm Prediction Center placed the area under a slight risk. Also, the ridge that has been keeping our area hot and relatively dry is expected to move west over the next few days. This should lower the temps a little and bring rain chances back to near normal levels. The NWS has placed a 30 percent chance of rain for Gainesville on Monday.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 76. For Monday, hot, but not as hot, with a chance of a shower or storm. I expect a high near 96.

Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest noteworthy observations and weather updates (twitter.com/daweathaman).

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 06.21.2009

Today, the weather has been pretty balmy in Gainesville. Once you walk out the door, it hits you like a ton of bricks. Unfortunately, it looks as if it will stick around for Sunday. The strong ridge that is to our west is expected to remain. Currently, there is a weak trough running through the state from the north according to the latest forecast discussion from NWS-JAX. However, it appears that it might not be enough to break the CAP and spawn some showers and storms due to lack of low-level convergence or lift. The discussion stated that there could be some cooling aloft (which could help spawn rain/storms), but chances still seem low for any precipitation. So, expect the high temperatures to remain thanks in part to the sinking air from the ridge.

For tonight, expect very warm and humid night with partly cloudy skies. I'm calling for a low near 76. For Sunday, expect much of the same today with partly cloudy skies with a very slim chance of storms. I'm calling for a high of 100.

The record high for Sunday was 100 degrees and was set in 1998 (that was the summer when Florida had extreme drought and wildfires). We might get close, approach it or barely exceed the century mark. High dewpoints will factor in to the temperature and increase the heat index, which could get as high as 109 degrees according to the NWS.

If you plan to be outside, drink plenty of water, wear light clothing and take frequent breaks. Statistically, most weather deaths are due to heat (Source: The Weather Channel).

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.19.2009

Today looked to be a little busy for Gainesville, but not much so. Most of the action was to the east of town in the early afternoon and later on to the south. Also, Perry, Fla. was rocked hard with baseball-sized hail according to The Weather Channel.

Tonight, there is still a threat of showers and storms rolling through Gainesville. A cluster of storms (or technically known as a Mesoscale Convective System, or MCS) is to the north of us over the Florida/Georgia border. The bulk of it is near Columbia County and points west and moving southwest. However, cells to the north of JAX are merging with left-over outflow boundaries and creating storms. These - if they hold - could make it to Gainesville in maybe four to five hours from now. Then again, there is a new line forming in Columbia and Baker counties that could make it here within a couple of hours. These could have strong winds and large hail with frequent lightning.


Source: WeatherTAP.com/Tap Publishing

The above radar image from 10:49 p.m. shows the storms to the north of GNV.

However, things might improve...sort of. The ridge that has been out to our west for some time is expected to move to the east closer to the state. This will move any MCS' or other waves of storms offshore and enhance the CAP over the area, limiting chances of rain. NAM and GFS, as well as HPC plots, show this nudge in the high to the right starting Friday. NWS-JAX has reflected this change in their zone forecasts with lower chances of rain and higher daytime temperatures (that's where the "sort of" comes from). Regardless, NAM and GFS models are still showing precip Friday evening. If the high does nudge over, I am going to have the discount the models on the precip predictions.

For tonight, expect a chance of a shower or storm roll in from the north. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 71. For Friday, partly cloudy skies and balmy with a slim chance of a shower or storm. Expect a high near 97. Take it easy outside on Friday.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 06.18.2009

Today's weather wasn't that exciting in Gainesville today since with was sunny, hot, then cloudy towards the end with maybe a drop or two of rain. Most of the action was off to the southwest affecting parts of west central Florida. However, there is a east-to-west line of storms in south Georgia and north Florida (entering Baker and Columbia counties). I am not sure if it will reach Alachua this evening since it might make more of a southwest direction or fizzle out. NWS-JAX made a remark on this "supercell thunderstorm" and said it should be through the "southwest portion of the forecast area by midnight" (if it holds). See radar from 8:48 p.m. below.


Source: weathertap.com / TapPublishing

Thursday looks a little different with a better chance for storms. The NWS is expecting a lingering shortwave trough to push across the area and could enhance thunderstorm development. NWS-JAX is keeping rain chances at 40 percent. At the mid to upper levels, we will still be under the influence of the ridge and will continue to get a northerly flow. The Storm Prediction Center has Florida under a general thunderstorm risk for Thursday, not severe.

Tonight, partly cloudy with a chance of a storm (the one shown on the radar image above). Expect the morning low near 74. For Thursday, partly cloudy, hot as usual with a chance of showers and storms and a high near 94. Any storms we get will be coming from the north.

Quick Weather Update

Snippet from NWS-JAX latest AFD:
FORECAST FOR THESE TYPE OF EASTERN PERIPHERY UPPER RIDGE PATTERNS [which we are currently under] IS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE IMPORTANCE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN POP DISTRIBUTION AND STORM SEVERITY. LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODELS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12Z [8 a.m. today] AND BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THIS WILL PLACE IT OVER SOUTH GA BY 18Z [2 p.m. today] WITH GREATEST FORCING ONCE AGAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION. DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW REGIME HOWEVER...SHOULD SEE A GOOD EAST COAST SEABREEZE WITH LESS DEVELOPMENT DUE TO PWATS DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST FOCUS WILL BE INLAND AREAS OF FLORIDA OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO LOW END SCT.
However, NWS-JAX has lowered rain chances for Gainesville to 20 percent. I haven't seen the skew-t readings from KJAX yet, so I am not sure how strong the CAP is today or how unstable things are. Keep an eye on the twitter page, I guess.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 06.17.2009

Being in Florida makes you feel HOT, HOT, HOT! I was not sure if it was going to rain today, but it seems that the CAP was able to be broken today and storms (mostly south of Gainesville) were able to be really fired up earlier this evening. There was plenty of energy out there today, but if the CAP can't be broken, good luck.

Wednesday's rain chances might be close to the same. NWS-JAX didn't seem to give much detail into tomorrow in their latest AFD. I'm thinking at this point that conditions will be about the same. The HPC synoptic outlook has surface high pressure still hanging around the Gulf of Mexico. GFS and NAM models also have this thing reaching in the mid and upper levels (see GFS graphic below). The north flow from the ridge and the CAP that we have had will be back in place. Some lift - either from a sea breeze front or outflow boundaries from storms - will aid things, as well as some hot and moist "energy" to kick things.


Wednesday morning (12Z) GFS 500-mb forecast. (Source: Unisys Weather)



Surface map of the southeast showing the high in the gulf. (Source: NOAA)

In other words, things look to be the same Wednesday as they did today.

For tonight, some clearing with a morning low near 72. Wednesday, expect the same song and dance: partly cloudy and HOT with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. I'm calling for a high near 94.

Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest (twitter.com/daweathaman).

Monday, June 15, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 06.16.2009

Gainesville got one quick shower this afternoon and only dropped 0.01 inches of rain today. Yea. That's it.

Expect a similar pattern of weather for Tuesday as it was today. NWs-JAX is expecting subsidence to increase as the upper ridge builds from the west. This will keep rain chances low and allow temps to remain high with heat indices between 100 and 105. NWS-JAX is calling for a 40 percent chance of rain for Tuesday while AccuWeather is calling for at least a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. NAM and GFS is showing some precip in interior Florida, but doesn't seem that strong.

For tonight, partly cloudy with a morning low of 73. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high near 95.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Forecast for Monday 06.15.2009

I hope everyone had a great weekend. The weather around Gainesville has mostly been calm except for Saturday afternoon. Apparently when I was driving to Orlando that afternoon, severe weather broke out over the Gainesville area dumping over an inch of rain in some spots along with 3/4-inch hail at some locations according to severe weather reports compiled by NWS-JAX. My rain gauge in southwest GNV picked up seven-tenths of an inch of rain Saturday. Sunday was quieter with partly cloudy skies.

However, things appear to change a little starting Monday. The ridge that has kept rain chances low the last few days is expected to move west over the Gulf of Mexico according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. A gradual return of deep-layer moisture will start to enhance rain chances for the area. Any convection will also be aided by surface convergence by a weak frontal trough and surface low (apparently to the north). Due to the lighter wind flow, west and east coast sea breezes will become more dominant. NAM and GFS indicate lighter flow from the north at 500 mb. Both NAM and GFS point out some rainfall over the interior of Florida in the evening.

For tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with clearing later on tonight (cloud cover from leftover thunderstorm complex that went through southeast today) with a morning low of 73. Monday, partly cloudy skies, hot with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Expect a high near 92.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Forecast for Saturday 06.13.2009

It's been a few days since my last forecast. I was in Atlanta for a rare tour of The Weather Channel (thanks to Stephanie Abrams!) and for most of the Inland Impacts of Tropical Cyclones conference. I will have a post with some photos of the trip on the main blog sometime this weekend.

The weather today has been pretty calm in north Florida mostly due to high pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It has stave off any rain in the area and it's likely to be the case for Saturday.

A weak frontal trough will aproach the area from the north and may aid in spawning isolated afternoon storms according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. The NAM and GFS models point out some shower activity (mostly on the NE side of the state). I'm thinking it's less likely since NWS-JAX is calling for a 30 percent chance of rain for the GNV area.

For tonight, mostly clear conditions with a morning low of 72. For Saturday, expect partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of a shower and storm. I'm calling for a high of 94.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 06.09.2009

The weather has improved very slightly over the Gainesville area in the last three days. It hasn't rained Sunday or today, and it's a possibility of that to continue Tuesday.

Surface maps from the HPC show high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico bringing either a light west or north flow (been variable) to the area. A trough of low pressure is expected to remain near the area Tuesday, but moisture content should be lower according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion. Descending air should also limit rain chances for the area (keeping them near 20 percent). Therefore, partly cloudy skies should persist with a slight chance of showers and storms.

Tonight, some clearing is possible with a morning low near 69. Tuesday, partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and storms. The high should be near 92.

I will be traveling to Atlanta early tomorrow morning to a special tour (more on that later) and the Inland Impacts of Tropical Cyclones conference. I'm tagging along with a professor at the UF Geography Department, two graduate students and one undergrad. I should be back in Gainesville late Thursday night. Check out my main blog (http://daweathamanroop.wordpress.com/) and my Twitter site (http://www.twitter.com/daweathaman) for updates. Forecasts should resume Friday night, if possible.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Forecast for Friday 06.05.2009

Friday should look a lot like today with showers and storms likely.

The shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico is still dragging its way east along with a frontal boundary in the southern Mississippi Valley. NWS-JAX is calling for the low move in Friday and stall out northwest of Gainesville Friday night. This will continue to funnel in moisture and keep rain chances high. The NAM seems to show heavy precip over the area, but the GFS forecast is tamer on rainfall. Nevertheless, expect high chances of rain for Friday.

Tonight, some clearing with a possible stray shower - morning low of 69. Friday, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms likely. The high should be near 83. The SPC is not calling for any severe weather, but any extra daytime heating could give enough instability for possbile strong gusts and small hail.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 06.04.2009

Gainesville got hit twice with rain today (once in the mid afternoon and again this evening). However, the weather for Thursday looks a little wetter.

Currently, there are a few light showers across north Florida, including one batch of light rain in Dunnellon and Rainbow Lakes Estates. All activity is moving towards the north. Since there's no more daytime heating, I expect these to rain themselves out.

An area of low pressure associated with a front near Louisiana is expected to keep moving west as well as a trough ahead of it in the Gulf of Mexico. Deep southerly flow will continue to pump moisture to Florida, which will keep rain chances high. There could be a chance of a strong storm, but that depends on how much daytime heating there is. HPC QPFs show rainfall rates for Thursday to be no more than an inch.

GFS shows precip over the area Thursday morning, but the NAM is calling for the heaviest at the same time.

For tonight, skies should be mostly cloudy with a stray shower possible. Expect a morning low of 67. Showers and a few storms are likely Thursday with a high near 82. Rain is possible in the morning, so be ready before you walk out the door to class or work.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 06.03.2009

Have you noticed how sticky it is outside? Well, that's Florida heat and humidity, and it's back.

The trend should continue tomorrow as the high pressure system to our northeast continues to move out to sea and funnel in tropical moisture. However, there will be another ingredient (from NWS-JAX):
VERY MUCH A TRANSITION DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AMPLIFYING AND EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A SMALL BUT POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING OUR AREA LATE WED AFTERNOON.
This should lead to higher chances of rain Wednesday. Also, NWS-JAX hinted at a possibility of strong to severe storms due to cooler temps at the 500 mb level. So far, the SPC has not caught on to this thought.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies with a morning low of 70. Wednesday, partly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and storms in the afternoon. Expect a high near 88.

If possible, blog updates could be given. Otherwise, keep tabs on my twitter feed.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 06.02.2009

It's been three forecast days, but I am back to forecasting.

You know all of this nice, low humidity weather we have been having? It's going away!

Tuesday is expected to be a transition day as a south to southwesterly flow takes over and brings in more moisture to the area. However, according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion, the rain chances for the area should be no higher than slight. The NAM and GFS models show very little precip across the state on Tuesday.

For tonight, mostly clear skies with a morning low near 68. You might notice an increase in moisture tonight as dew points are already in the 60s. Tuesday, expect partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of showers and storms. The high should be near 89.

Wednesday, moisture is expected to increase as well as rain chances. More on that tomorrow night.

By the way, today is the first day of hurricane season. Make sure you are prepared. Check out info on how to prepare from Ready.gov.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Forecast for Friday 05.29.2009

It rained a little earlier than expected today, but it kept coming on and off this afternoon. The UF campus was hit at least three times by isolated thunderstorms with heavy rain at times. It could be the same song and dance Friday.

An upper-level trough will help a cold front slowly push towards our area. This will heighten rain chances for Friday. The GFS and NAM models show "blobs" of precipitation in and around our area, but don't pick up the front very clearly. Still, surface forecasts from the HPC show the front getting as close as Lake City and Live Oak around 8 a.m. Saturday.

For tonight, partly cloudy skies are expected with a morning low near 71. Friday, expect partly cloudy skies in the morning with a good chance of showers and storms during the afternoon (possibly late morning). I'm calling for a high near 88.

The weather looks a little nicer this weekend as the front hangs to our south. The temps will be near average, but it should feel a little less humid. More forecast details tomorrow night.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 05.28.2009

So, it didn't rain today in our area. That bombed my forecast. A wake of a mid-level shortwave aided in lowering rain coverage in north Florida according to a SPC convective outlook from the afternoon.

Right now, skies remain mostly clear over the Gainesville area. Tomorrow, here's what the NWS-JAX forecast discussion calls:
THE BIGGEST CHANGES INTO THU WILL BE THE INCREASED GRADIENT WHICH MAY PREVENT SEABREEZE ACTIVITY AT ALL ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE INCREASED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AS LARGER SCALE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. OVERALL...WITH LOW LCL`S [lifting condensation level] CONTINUING AND 500 TEMPS WARMING EVER SO SLIGHTLY...WE SHOULD SEE A DAY TYPICAL OF TODAY WITH ACTIVITY FORMING EARLY BUT PERHAPS NOT AS STRONG UNTIL LATE IN THE EVENING SHOULD ANY SEABREEZE FORM ALONG THE [east] COAST.
So...expect some of the same weather as today for Thurdsday. We might see some storms, but don't look for anything crazy until, maybe, in the afternoon. Whether this will affect Gainesville remains to be seen.

Tonight, expect clearer skies with a morning low of 69. The temp at KGNV as of 10 p.m. was 75. It's a little warm, but the clearer skies could aid in some radiational cooling, but it also depends on the amount of moisture in the air tonight (dewpoint was at 71). I won't expect a major cooldown. Thursday, skies should be partly sunny in the morning with a chance of showers and storms. Expect a high of 86.

Keep any eye on my Twitter updates (on the right sidebar) for some of the latest weather updates troughout the day Thursday.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 05.27.2009

I am back from a four-day hiatus and ready to create Wednesday's forecast.

Satellite imagery and models indicate a upper-level trough over the northeast Gulf of Mexico according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. This could generate some showers tonight. Due to low temps and CAPES, chances of thunderstorms is very low. With the abundant moisture, fog is a possibility but that's dependent on cloud cover over any given area.

Wednesday, things look like the same as today with the west coast sea breeze being the dominant force. Storms, if any, should move into the Gainesville area in the early afternoon and move northeast.

For tonight, some clearing with fog possible. The AM low should be near 67. For Wednesday, partly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Heavy rain is possible with some of these cells. Expect a high of 86.

Thursday looks to be the same forecast at this point, but check back tomorrow night for details.

Friday, May 22, 2009

Is it tropical or not?

You know that low pressure system that has been pestering us with the rain for the last five days. If you live in Florida, you know you know it. Well, the NHC has raised some suspicions in the last few hours of making this at least a tropical depression soon.

Wait. What? A TD? It's not even hurricane season yet (starts June 1). However, that's not the reason why I am questioning it.

For the last five days, there has been some chatter in the weather community whether this could become a tropical system. It seemed real unlikely due to some technical and other factors. Today, it came up again when the NHC decided to reissue special outlooks regarding the system and giving it less than a 30 percent chance of forming. I've been saying all along that this storm could not do so at this point (and I'll get to why soon).

While watching Weather Center on The Weather Channel this evening, Meteorologist (and UF Geography alumna - WoOt!) Stephanie Abrams read a fresh statement from the NHC changing the likelyhood of formation from low to medium. Wha?

This is why I thought it couldn't. 1) For the last few days this low has been accompanied by a upper level low. Why is this important. Tropical systems are usually aided by high pressure aloft (if you ever see the outer spiral of a hurricane and how it kind of looks like it's going clockwise? That's a clue). It's a way it can vent. But it's not the case with this storm. The upper low would make it more of a cold core system.

2) Broad convection. For the last few days, the storm lacked any convection around the center. Instead, the heaviest rain has mostly been far from the center of circulation. Tropical Cyclones (will be noted as TCs for now on) have a closed-center circulation with most of the convection wrapping around it.

3) The wind shear is high over the storm (25-30 kts, the threshold is usually 20 kts or less). Further explained by an excerpt from Divine Wind (Emanuel, 2005, Oxford Press):
"[I]f wind shear is present, the storm tries to move along at an average wind speed, and at some altitudes wind must blow through the storm. This storm-relative flow can import dry air from outside the cloud cluster, destroying the humid column of air that is needed for genesis."
So, what is the National Hurricane Center thinking? A senior hurricane specialist from the NHC was on The Weather Channel via phone to talk about it. Jack Beven had some very valid points that I am now realizing.

1) There is still a upper-level low in place. HOWEVER, it is weakening and not completely for the hell of it. What's happening is that the low is becoming more organized to the point where it is releasing more latent heat in the atmosphere which is helping to weaken the colder upper low.

2) Evidence of strengthening is the amount of convection that has blown up in the last few hours (as shown below from the latest IR satellite at 10:45 PM EDT).



The convection was not this crazy at around 7 p.m.

3) The heaviest convection doesn't always have to completely wrap around the center of circulation. In fact, Beven said that there are some full-blown tropical depressions that do not have all of the thunderstorm activity completely wrapped around it, but it coverage and intensity do play a role. The increased convection will send off more latent heat and modify the system even more.

Both NAM and GFS models have the cut-off upper low disappearing by 8 a.m. Saturday.

Buoy reports have winds near the center at 30 mph, but there is a chance winds might be higher, Beven said.

However, things to consider. If it's strengthening, will it become a TD before landfall Saturday? The models have this system making landfall sometime Saturday afternoon or evening. If it does, will it matter? No matter what happens, the results will be the same: rain, rain, rain in and near the landfall area. There might be a little more wind, but that's it.

Beven was pretty awesome in the interview. He explained things pretty well. I learned some stuff from that interview on TWC. I should have a little more faith in the guys and gals with the Masters and Ph.D's. They might see things that others can't.

Lets see what this thing does.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Forecast for Friday 05.22.2009

Rain, rain, go away. I'm starting to get a little annoyed with this constant cloud cover over us. I don't mind rain, but if it has to be dreary every minute, it's gets old really quickly. However, the wish of more sun might arrive soon.

The deepening low is still over the eastern Gulf of Mexico but is advancing slowly west with the upper low near the same vicinity. Things do look promising.

The lower-level low is expected to keep moving west while both the NAM and GFS have the upper low disappear tomorrow. The high to our north is expected to weaken and move east, which should decrease the pressure gradient and, in turn, lessen the wind speed. This doesn't mean that it will not rain anymore. We are expected to be on the east side of this low, which will funnel warm and moist tropical air to our area. We should see more broken cloud cover, but any daytime heating will fire up showers and thunderstorms in the Gainesville area. This could bring locally heavy rainfall to places that don't need any more rain.

For tonight, expect cloudy skies with a chance of a shower or two. The AM low should be near 66. Friday, expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I'm calling for a high of 79. We could see a few peaks at the sun...maybe.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 05.21.2009

SE SFC

The above image you see is not a hoax. It is reality. The Doppler radar image from NWS-JAX shows the estimated amount of rain at locations across the area since 7:46 AM ET on Saturday, May 16. Where you see the pinks in parts of Flagler and Volusia counties indicates 12 or more inches of rain. Compare that to the Gainesville area where we've seen between an inch and 1.5 inches since Saturday.

Here's the (un)funny part: It's still not over yet.

Surface analysis at 8 p.m. ET continues shows the low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico due east of Naples and due south of Panama City. It's not hugging the coast northern Monroe County like it was last night. It's good news that it's moving, but not quick enough. Also, the upper-level cut off low persists over South Florida according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion.

Bands of rain are still forecast to persist tonight and Thursday around the upper low and the converging flow from the Atlantic according to the discussion. Basically, the synopitc setup will not change very much Thursday. The same 'ol rain dance.

Tonight, periods of on and off rain with a morning low around 65. For Thursday, expect rain with slightly breezy conditions and a high of 77.

The rain might stick around Friday and Saturday, but things might change afterwards. Stay tuned for future forecasts.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 05.20.2009

Rain, rain and more rain will be the story for the next couple of days as the current atmospheric setup is expected to remain mostly static.

Currently, a surface low remains near southwest Florida while the warm front (formerly stationary) is moving back north (see 8 p.m. sfc map below). The move of the front is reflected in Gainesville's current temps as they have increased slightly (62 deg as of 11 p.m.).

SE SFC


From looking at satellite imagery, the low is very broad and open with cloud cover extending out hundreds of miles to the east. Showers continue to move onshore with some of the heaviest over Bradford and Clay counties as well as eastern Marion County. East Central Florida will get a heavy batch of rain and a few thunderstorms as the hours wear on. Gainesville could soon get some action from the Bradford and Clay batch, but I am not certain on that at this point.

The low is expected to slowly move to the west Wednesday, but will continue to pump in moisture and keep rain chances very high. The pressure gradient between the high to the north and the low is expected to persist tomorrow and keep things breezy. The upper low over the gulf will too remain nearby until at least Thursday evening when some of the models have it dissipate.

For tonight, expect cloudy skies with periods of rain with an AM low near 63. Wednesday, the same rain song and dance tomorrow with a high near 75. With the warm front lifting through here earlier, I am a little more confident that the 58 degree weather at 4 p.m. in mid-May will be a thing of Monday and today.

The rain in Gainesville hasn't been as bad as other places. Reports of high precip amounts have come in, especially from southern Flagler County where they have received nearly 13 inches since the weekend. GNV Regional Airport only picked up 0.23 inches of rain through 6 p.m. today.

Things may begin to improve after Thursday, but I'll include more details as the time passes.

Quick Weather Update

I have to leave for work soon, so I need to make this short and sweet. Surface maps from the HPC show the front nearly stationary over south Florida with a 1008 mb low between Key West and Cuba with another weak low southeast of Andros Island in the Bahamas (see NOAA/HPC map below).

SE SFC

Radar and satellite imagery show some signs of a counterclockwise turn with this system over Florida. This is bringing a reversal of direction of rain from yesterday - moderate to heavy showers are moving in from the east with the heaviest activity over Flagler County. Expect this heavy activity to move in later this morning and throughout the day.

Due to the tight pressure gradient between the high to the north and the developing low to the south, winds could be a little stronger than ususal today. Winds are expected to be between 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 05.19.2009

Before I go into tomorrow's outlook, let me discuss today. Holy cow, was it cold for May. The weather played a "switcharoony" today with a low of 59 and a high of 70 (as of 6 p.m.). But it's not what you think. The high of 70 degrees was around 9 a.m. while the low was at 6 p.m.

At 8 p.m., it was 58 degrees at the Gainesville Regional Airport. At 4 p.m., it was 60 degrees. I never thought I would see 60 degrees at 4 o'clock on a mid-May afternoon. It's also damp and cloudy at the same time. What gives?

Something that I didn't catch was the fact that this front would be so potent and that a upper-level trough would be bearing down bringing in cooler weather (trough shown below at 8 a.m. EDT Monday morning)

Upper Air at 8 a.m. EDT
Image Source: NCAR

The guidance models from last night didn't seem to catch this, either. The northerly breeze after the passage of the front aided in the cool feeling today.

Currently, the cold front is nearly stationary to our south with a surface low in the east central Gulf of Mexico. There is also an inverted trough near Florida's east coast according to the NWS-JAX's latest area forecast discussion. These disturbances are bringing light rain to our area, but some of the heaviest rain is off in south Florida, especially Miami-Dade and Broward counties.

The low that is in northern Cuba and the Bahamas is expected to move west and merge with the front and bring in more moisture and rain to the area. The NWS says NAM model predicts the closed low may move across south Florida while the GFS has the low entering through northeast Florida. There is also a slim chance that this low could form into a tropical (or sub-tropical) storm, although I think it's very remote at this point. At the upper levels, the trough that I mentioned earlier might become a cut-off low and sit in the eastern gulf for a few days. The NAM has this cut-off low forming in the gulf as early as tomorrow.

For tomorrow morning, things should be quiet but the rain may begin to return in the afternoon into the evening as the low towards our south begins to interact with the front and push it back towards our area.

Upper Air at 8 a.m. EDT
Forecast for 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday. Image Source: NOAA/HPC

So, in a nut shell (since I might have lost some of you), tonight should be calmer but cloudy with some lingering showers possible. Expect the AM low around 56 with breezy conditions. Due to the high to our north and the low to our south, expect the pressure gradient to keep it breezy. For Tuesday, cloudy in the morning with a chance of light rain followed by a good chance of rain sometime in the afternoon. If the front lifts back up soon enough, it should be a little warmer with a high of 70. Winds should continue to be around 15 mph with possible higher gusts.

It's going to be a wet week, but we need it. Stay tuned.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Forecast for Monday 05.18.2009

Currently, showers and storms are to our east over the coastal counties and to our north from Sanderson (Baker Co.) southwest to Bell (Gilchrist Co.). There is a chance that Gainesville could get a shower or two before before the night is over. The front is currently north of us in southern Georgia and the western Florida panhandle.

The rainy weather we have seen this afternoon should be a repeat for most of tomorrow. NWS-JAX and the HPC is expecting the front to slowly pass the area later tonight into Monday bringing higher chances of rain. The atmosphere remains very moist and unstable.

For tonight, mostly cloudy skies should persist with a shower or two possible. The morning low should be near 63. For Monday, expect mostly cloudy skies with showers and storms likely. I'm calling for a high of 71. From viewing the short range forecasts, the front may not pass the area until around 2 p.m. ET, but the rain may stick around for most of the day.

Random Weather Update

I've been checked out for the last couple of days and, therefore, no forecasts. However, I have a few minutes to give a heads up on what's coming up.

For today, a front is dragged from Texas to northern Georgia to New England. This front is expected to move southward and (along with daytime heating and the seabreeze) bring a chance of rain to the Gainesville area. This morning's KJAX sounding data shows precipitable water amounts at 1.73 inches with an unstable atmosphere. Storm direction should be northerly

Currently on radar, there are showers and storms forming in Lafayette and Dixie counties (to our north and west of GNV) while lighter showers are spawning in central Putnam County near the St. Johns River.

Things will change a little starting tomorrow. A trough of low pressure is expected to move in from the Caribbean near Florida as the front gets closer. The trough will feed in moisture and will help raise rain chances and aid drought-stricken Florida, especially South Florida. Guidance model forecasts show the low in varying degrees, but the result points to good chances of rain for the state. This will last for at least the first half of the week.

For the rest of the day, expect partly cloudy skies with a 50/50 chance of showers and storms. The high should be around 86.

Five day QPFs from the HPC call for rainfall in Florida about 2-3 inches on average with some higher amounts (see below).

Unisys Weather
Expect the next few days to be umbrella weather.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Forecast for Friday 05.15.2009

It will be the same song and dance for the next few days as it has been for the last two days. The only influence on our weather here is the sea breeze fronts in the afternoon as we enter a typical summer pattern. Mid to upper level winds will once again be light and, therefore, storms will be slow moving and erratic in direction. Like today, storms should form near the coasts late morning and early afternoon and slowly make their way towards the center of the state. Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning seem to be the main concerns.

For tonight, expect clearing to partly cloudy skies with a morning low near 65. For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible later in the day. The expect the high around 86.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Forcast for Wednesday 05.13.2009

The front that I mentioned last night is currently stationary over north Florida. However, for Wednesday, this frontal boundary is expected to remain over the area as well as a moist onshore flow according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. Conditions will remain favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak mid to upper-level flow could keep any storms moving slow to a crawl which could create a flooding risk with heavy rain.

For tonight, expect mostly cloudy skies with a very slight chance of a shower. The morning low should be around 67. For Wednesday, it looks like partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist with a high of 84. NWS-JAX is calling for a 50 percent rain chance in Alachua County while AccuWeather predicts a 40 percent chance.

Rain was possible today, but none hit the Gainesville area so far. A factor was the abundant cloud cover that prevented any daytime heating and, in turn, instability. The severity of any weather (or weather at all) will depend on this factor again Wednesday.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 05.12.2009

Sorry for the long forecast hiatus. Being real busy plus being on a cruise kept me away from making forecasts. Now, I want to get back into the swing of things.

A front that is to our north is expected be across the Gainesville area sometime Tuesday morning. NWS-JAX and HPC surface forecasts are calling for the front to stall and raise the instability a bit to spawn showers and a few storms. The SPC is not calling for severe threats for the state since there is expected to be little or no shear, but isolated severe hail and wind from stronger cells is a possibility.

The rain is slowly starting to come back to the state. South Florida had a few isolated cells with at least one triggering severe thunderstorm warnings. Some storms were off to the east of Gainesville today.

For tonight, expect partly cloudy skies with a morning low of around 68. During the day, there is a chance of a shower or storm as the front nears and as daytime heating helps fire things up. The high should be around 85. It shouldn't be as hot as it has been for the last few days.

The front is expected to push through Wednesday as the high builds. However, there will be slight chances of rain now that we are starting to enter the typical summer pattern in Florida.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 04.30.2009

Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.
Constant weather and no change makes Charles a dull boy.

The same pattern that has been in effect for more than a week will remain, but a little less amplified according to the NWS-JAX forecast discussion. Regardless, warm and mostly sunny weather will persist for the next few days.

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with the possibility of fog. The morning low should be around 59. For Thursday, mostly sunny skies should be the case with a high of 85.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 04.29.2009

It's the same song and dance for tomorrow for the Gainesville area. The ridge that has been dominant for over a week will remain and bring sunny and dry weather for Wednesday.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a morning low of 58. On Wednesday, I'm calling for mostly sunny skies with a high of 84.

The ridge is expected to weaken, but slightly. Don't expect enough instability to increase rain changes this weekend.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 04.28.2009

I am sitting outside on my laptop right now not because it's really cool outside, but it's actually cooler than the inside of the apartment. Mysteriously, our AC decided to freeze up and now we have to open our windows and let the AC adjust itself.



The nice, clear conditions that I am seeing right now will, once again, persist for the next few days. The ridge is expected to keep its place and keep Florida dry and clear. The wind flow will primarily be out of the east for tomorrow, increasing the rip current threat for the eastern coastline.

For tonight, expect mostly clear skies with a morning low of around 60. The guidance models seem to be accurately forecasting the temperatures so far. For Tuesday, I'm calling for mostly sunny skies with a high of 84. Any clouds in the skies will probably be low-level.

The ridge that is keeping us dry and warm is expected to weaken in by the weekend (see GFS 300mb Friday forecast below), but it might not be enough to bring any big chances of rain. The front that was expected to be near the area this weekend has been discounted by the latest model runs.

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Forecast for Monday 04.27.2009

Once again, conditions are and expected to be the same tonight and tomorrow for Gainesville and vicinity. The ridge is expected to remain in place. The latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion notes of east to southeast winds of 15-20 mph. Fog is still possible in the area.

For tonight, mostly clear with a chance of fog and a morning low of 59. For the day, expect mostly sunny skies and breezy with a high of 84.

Things expect to change later in the week as the high expects to weaken and more moisture is expected to return. We might see some rain in the forecast as early as early as Friday. I'll know more when as time gets closer.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Forecast for Sunday 04.26.2009

The weather tomorrow seems to be a carbon copy of the last few days. The ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic is dominating our weather in the eastern U.S. The high will bring an easterly flow to the Gainesville area.

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with possible fog. The Sunday morning low should be around 57. For the day, skies should be mostly sunny with a high of 86.

In the long run, upper-air forecasts show the ridge in the east to remain in place at least until Thursday. Then again, it might be longer. Therefore, no rain in the forecast in the area for the next five days.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Forecast for Friday 04.24.2009

Well, today was nearly picture perfect weather. Guess what? It's going to be the same tomorrow. It seems now that the eastern U.S. is gripped under a ridge of high pressure, which is centered in the eastern Atlantic. This is expected to keep Gainesville and vicinity very dry and warm.

For tonight, expect clear skies with a possibility of fog. I'm calling for a morning low near 58. Sunny skies for Friday with a high of 89.

This dry and warm weather seems to be a big play for the next week as the ridge is expected to remain in place.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Forecast for Thursday 04.23.2009

High pressure is currently dominating our weather in the Gainesville area. Its position is bringing a north to northwest flow, which is keeping things slightly on the cool side. This will last into the night. However, there could be the possibility of fog according to the latest NWS-JAX forecast discussion. The current synoptic pattern will continue tomorrow and bring mostly sunny skies.

For tonight, mostly clear skies w/ the possibility of fog. The morning low should be around 53. During the day Thursday, expect mostly sunny skies with a high of 86.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Forecast for Wednesday 04.22.2009

A weakening cold front is currently over the Florida panhandle and moving south. The front is expected to pass near the Gainesville area in the morning. However, very little instability exists over the area. The weather should remain like it was today with low humidity.

Some clouds (which is currently seen on infrared satellite) might move over the area as the weak front nears. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies tonight with a Wednesday morning low of 54. For the day, expect partly cloudy skies with a high of 80.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Forecast for Tuesday 04.21.2009

After a rainy and dreary day for Gainesville, things will start to clear up. The front that brought showers and a few rumbles of thunder earlier today is currently east of Tallahassee and is expected to move through the area soon. Winds should shift more from the west and also bring in some drier air.

For tonight, I expect some clearing late tonight into the morning with a low of 56. During the day Tuesday, expect mostly sunny skies with a high of 80.

The NWS-JAX forecast discussion is calling for a weak and deteriorating cold front to pass through tomorrow night, but should not produce much in the way of rain. The next few days should be very nice.