Hurricane Rina Forms in the Caribbean Sea

I got my slight dose of shock this afternoon as Tropical Storm Rina was upgraded to hurricane status Monday afternoon. I say slight because it just looked really nice on the GOES loops.

Sunday afternoon, a tropical disturbance over the Caribbean Sea that was given invest classification became a tropical depression. Rina was then born by the 11 p.m. ET advisory.

When I viewed the satellite imagery this morning, the tropical cyclone (TC) looked like it was getting its act together quickly. The NHC forecasts had Rina becoming a hurricane a few days out. But the satellite loops showed Rina having good outflow and looking really organized. It wasn't until early this afternoon when USAF Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 991 mb and winds of at least 65 knots. This storm's winds increased 30 mph in roughly three hours and dropped 10 mb within the same time frame. At that point, the visible satellite loops were showing what looked like a developing eye.

Currently, the storm is still maintaining 65-kt winds. The pressure has dropped, but only a little (currently 989 mb) and the TC is still dragging west-northwest at 3 mph. Based on infrared satellite imagery, Rina's cloudtops are starting to become taller near the center of circulation (see below).

Source: NOAA

The ridge over southern Texas and northern Mexico is keeping Rina at bay and moving it slowly west. The GFS appears to break down the ridge come Tuesday afternoon as a trough over the western US begins to dig and move eastward. Most of the guidance models track Rina to the north and northeast late in the week. The NHC however, according to their last discussion, are not confident in the future track due to inconstant paths in the previous runs (hence why the "cone of error" is so large).

It may go north over time, but if it does, it may not last very long as a TC. The upper-level environment is very unfavorable to the north of Rina. Current wind shear numbers are 30+ knots. The NHC expects southerly shear to begin impacting the storm within a few days. Dry air is parked to the northwest of the storm. Right now, Rina is doing a good job of shielding itself from this dry air. But once it finds a way in, Rina will start to deteriorate. If, for example, Rina does move towards Florida, it will likely not be a beast of a hurricane because of this. Heck, it'll likely not even be tropical in nature at that point. It depends on how strong it gets. It could be a rain maker, at least.

This storm may take off to the north and northeast over time, but I doubt it will be anything tropical by that point because of the unfavorable environment ahead of it. It's still worth watching. Stay tuned to my Twitter feed for the latest. I might post another blog entry in a day or two, if conditions (and time) warrant.

Quick Overview: Plantation/Sunrise, Fla. Tornado

On Tuesday night (Oct. 18), an interesting weather pattern was setting up in south Florida. At the same time, I was watching the town hall session at the National Weather Association annual meeting in Birmingham, Alabama.

When me, Dan Goff, and 100+ meteorologists were listening on to what some of the general public thought about the warnings and the societal reactions to the April 27 tornado outbreak, I was checking my Twitter feed and discovered something interesting. The National Weather Service in Miami issued a tornado warning for parts of Monroe and western Miami-Dade counties. The storm was racing off to the northeast over the Everglades. It was far from the major metro areas along the east coast - I considered it an "alligator" storm.

The storms across south Florida had the potential to rotate and possibly spawn a few tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center had issued tornado watches for the area and has issued several mesoscale discussions (such as this one and this one). 

At 8:30 p.m. ET, the rotation seems to intensify on the velocity scan (see below). Dan and I were pretty amazed on how good it looked on radar. It looked like it was still an alligator storm, if not a tornado on the ground. I started to become concerned about this storm if it continued at its current strength toward northern Miami-Dade or southern Broward counties.

Screenshot of KAMX velocity tilt 1 scan using RadarScope on iOS 5.

Over time, the storm moved in a northerly direction and began to lose its impressive velocity signature.

However, NWS-Miami issues another tornado warning for parts of Broward.

Reports of damage start to flow in from the Plantation and Sunrise area of damage from a possible tornado at roughly 10:07 p.m. ET, according to NWS-Miami's storm assessment (PDF). About 4 minutes before the tornado was thought to have initiated, a scan from the Miami radar shows some possible rotation with the velocity scan (top right), while the storm relative (bottom left) shows slight rotation. The spectrum width (SW) (bottom right), which is used to essentially measure turbulence and associated with thunderstorms and mesovoritcies.

The storm continues to move off to the northeast for 1.11 miles doing a max of EF-2 damage with maximum winds of 120 mph. It aslo continues to lose its appearance on the Miami radar. THE TORNADO BEGAN AT NW 135TH AVENUE AND NW 3RD STREET IN PLANTATION AND ENDED AT NW 13TH STREET AND NW 133RD AVENUE IN SUNRISE. DAMAGE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PATH WAS OF EF-1 INTENSITY WITH WINDS OF 95-110 MPH. MORE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS SEEN OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE PATH, BETWEEN 8TH AND 10TH STREET JUST WEST OF 133RD AVENUE, AND WAS RATED AS EF-2 WITH A MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATED AT 120 MPH.   UP TO 50 HOMES WERE DAMAGED ALONG THE TORNADO'S PATH WITH DAMAGE TO ROOFS, GARAGE DOORS, AND WINDOWS. AT LEAST A DOZEN HOMES HAD  SIGNIFICANT TO SEVERE DAMAGE. ROOFS OF TWO HOMES WERE COMPLETELY REMOVED. TWO TRAILER HOMES WERE SHIFTED OFF THEIR FOUNDATIONS WITH MOST OF THE WALLS COLLAPSED. ONLY A FEW MINOR INJURIES WERE REPORTED, CONSISTING OF CUTS AND BRUISES. The NWS in Miami gave ample warning for this storm as it had a history of showing rotation on radar, especially over the Everglades. Based on the stories told by the local media, it's great news that there were few injuries and no deaths associated with this tornado in a highly populated area. With all the talk that Tuesday night in Birmingham of how people reacted from the April 27 outbreak, I wonder if anyone in the area received these warnings and how they prepared for it, especially since it was a tornado that arrived after dark.

Irene Makes Landfall

Hurricane Irene made landfall this morning near Cape Lookout, N.C. at 7:30 AM EDT with winds of 85 mph, a category one hurricane, according to the 8 AM advisory from the NHC. The landfall occurred 10-15 miles to the east of were I thought it would be, but it is a little weaker than I expected. I believe the dry air intrusion Friday afternoon and night was mostly to blame for the decrease in intensity. The current intensity, as of 11 AM EDT, is still at 85 mph with a central pressure of 952 mb. The pressure is still hanging around the 950s.

Irene is still expect to make a north-northeast trek and start accelerating in forward speed. It could maintain weak hurricane status until it reenters the Atlantic and move along the New England coastline. The threat remains of some storm surge, especially during high tide, but it shouldn't be as bad as expected. Wind is still a threat, especially in cities with large buildings in close proximity ("wind tunnel" effect could make the winds higher than normal). Inland flooding is also a high risk, especially along rivers and low-lying areas.

For the latest, keep any eye on my Twitter feed.

Irene Update

Well, Floridians can breathe a sigh of relief as Hurricane Irene has and will move north and away from the state's east coast. Irene still had effects on Florida though as rain bands from the western edge of the storm impacted the east coast areas of central and southern Florida. Wind gusts as high as 30 mph were reported in south Florida Thursday afternoon. It's likely that Florida's east coast will continue to encounter heavy surf and a high rip current threat.

Currently, Irene is east-northeast of Jacksonville, Fla. with winds of 100 mph and moving north (360 degrees) at 12 knots. The odd thing is that the central pressure is 951 mb. The winds seem fairly light with relation to the low central pressure. This could be because of a weak high to the east of Irene, which would lead to a lower pressure gradient and, therefore, lighter winds. [Mets: If I am wrong, please chime in on this]. The intensity has decreased a bit from earlier today, likely due to dry air intrusion into the system from the southeast based on water vapor satellite imagery.

I am not expecting too much change in strength through landfall, which is expected sometime tomorrow morning. Models are in agreement of an mid to upper trough to move through the Great Lakes and move east. This, along with Irene being on the western edge of the ridge, should keep Irene moving north - maybe a little more north-northeast - and make landfall along the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Based on the certainty of the models and time to landfall, I am confident that a landfall near Morehead City, NC is likely. I think Irene could still be a category two or strong category one hurricane at landfall Saturday morning. There could be some slight weakening as dry air entrainment could pose a threat to the TC. Shear doesn't seem to be an issue anytime soon as outflow looks really nice.

The concern is that the storm is relatively large and can have impacts far from Irene's center of circulation. Storm surge is still a concern on the coast along with heavy rain to areas that have received plenty recently. Because of the large population centers in New England, the societal impacts of Irene will be great.

NOAA

Since my thesis research falls along the lines of TC and tornado relationships, I should elaborate on a possible tornado threat. Tornadoes from TCs tend to develop on the right-front quadrant of the storm. Literature also points out a higher incidence of TC-tornado outbreaks when dry air entrainment and, therefore, steep relative humidity gradients occur (Curtis 2004). This is something I will try to keep my eye on as the hours move on. For now, the SPC has given a Mesoscale Discussion for the Outer Banks. There is not a high enough risk to issue a severe weather watch at the moment, but the conditions for tornado development could increase later tonight, according to their discussion. Still, with this dry air entering the storm and seeing some decent banding taking place north of the center on visible satellite (see above) has me kind of vigilant.

I will have more on Irene later.

Hurricane Irene Update

A lot has changed in the last couple of days. Tropical Storm Irene came to life Saturday evening as hurricane hunters found a weak circulation and central pressure of 1006 mb. Two days later, it's now a storm that has passed over Puerto Rico and has become the first hurricane of the season. The 8 PM EDT advisory now has Hurricane Irene at category two status with winds of 100 mph and a central pressure of 981 mb.

The last few visible satellite frames show a nice-looking storm. Latest infrared satellite imagery shows Irene continuing to intensify with high cloudtops, mostly around and north of the current center fix (19.7 N 68.7 W).

NOAA

The storm is not moving over the islands (Hispaniola and Cuba) and is not expected to. This leaves the door open to intensification as it moves west-northwest, then northwest as it is expected to encounter a weakness in the ridge over the Atlantic. The guidance models have shifted more east in the last two days, which is a change from where previous runs had Irene hitting Florida Friday into Saturday. Major guidance models - with the GFDL as an exception - have the storm remaining over the waters close to Florida and eyeing the Carolinas for a landfall. The GFDL has been persistant on a Florida landfall and is considered a outlier at the moment.

Southwest Florida Water Management District

As this storm remains over the open waters, my fear is rapid intensification. This is especially the case as Irene reaches the Bahamas. With water temperatures in the low 80s (pushing 85 in some spots), good outflow, no immediate threat of dry air intrusion, and very little shear, I don't see any reason for it not be a category three or four hurricane. This storm has the capability of being a monster TC and needs to be watched.

I've had a lot of friends from Florida ask me about this storm in the last couple of days and, of course, have not been able to give solid answers. With the storm at least five days from Florida and another day or two from the Carolinas, I don't trust the models this far in advance. I think the chances of a Florida impact are lower now, but I wouldn't completely rule it out. People in the NHC cone of error - from south Florida to North Carolina - need to keep an eye on Irene.

I'll post more on this storm in the coming days. Keep tabs on my Twitter account (twitter.com/daweathaman) for the latest.

Watching Invest 97L

It's been a while, but it's a good time for a blog post since the fall semester is now here and the hurricane season is starting to ramp up.

I'll start with something that has been catching eyes in the meteorological community. For the last few days, guidance models have been developing a tropical cyclone (TC) to arrive fairly close to the southeastern U.S. coastline nearly a week from now. On Thursday, the NHC has designated this area of concern as Invest 97L.

NOAA

The vis-sat shows 97L as a decent wave with little shear in the environment. Shear analysis indicates values around 10 kts. Movement has been westerly at nearly 20 mph. Infrared satellite loops show more organization and colder cloudtops in the last few hours. There was some concern of what the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding 97L would do to it, but it seems that the SAL is not as intense as it was Thursday. It looks as if the wave is doing a good job avoiding dry air intrusions at the moment based on water vapor imagery.

So, what will happen? It's expected to approach the Lesser Antilies on Saturday where conditions could still be favorable for development. Shear is expected to be relatively low. The NHC is giving it a 40 percent chance of development for the next 48 hours. I'm confident that the chances will increase, at least through Saturday. Guidance models are in fair agreement of 97L moving toward the west-northwest and getting close to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola at the beginning of next week. What happens beyond that is iffy...

Path...

The system would eventually take a more northerly path. The GFS, at this moment, has the storm hitting the western side of Florida and striking the Big Bend next weekend. The Euro has the storm hitting the southeastern coast of Florida and moving north-northeast to northeast a day later than the GFS. It would depend on a) how strong the ridge to the east is and b) any troughs in the eastern U.S. to help "pick up" the storm. For example, the GFS seems to have the Bermuda High fairly strong and keep it more west than the Euro. Other models don't go this far out.

Strength...

If 97L / future TC moves over the islands (Hispaniola, Cuba), they can have an effect on further development of the system and even decrease its strength. The mountainous terrain can do some damage to a healthy TC. If the wave / TC doesn't cross the islands as much, it may not lose so much strength. It all goes back to the path of the storm, which is still highly uncertain.

Nutshell...

When I start to see consistant patterns in a guidance model (run-to-run) and the guidance models agreeing with each other, my eyes start to get wider. Still, I have a hard time trusting guidance models beyond three or four days. I'm not comfortable making calls this early in the game. My advice: People from the Carolinas to Brownsville, TX need to watch the tropics for the next week. Things might get interesting.

Footage to air on National Geographic Channel

Some of my footage from the April 15 tornado outbreak will air on the show "Witness: Tornado Swarm 2011" on the National Geographic Channel this Sunday, May 29 at 9 pm ET (8 pm CT). There should be at least 54 seconds of footage from my chase with Cecilia Reeves and Evan Thomas, two other meteorology graduate students from Mississippi State. Storm chasers Jim Edds and Jeff Gammons will also have footage aired from their storm chasing last month. Meteorology faculty from Mississippi State, Greg Nordstrom and Michael Carter, will also have footage aired on the episode. For more info on the show, check out the web page from Nat Geo.

Jim Edds and Jeff Gammons will also have their hurricane footage aired on NatGeo's "Explorer: Stormageddon" one hour before "Witness" (8 pm ET/7 pm CT).

Be sure to check out the National Geographic Channel Sunday night.

Chase Log: Wednesday, April 27, 2011 - Eastern Mississippi / Western Alabama

When Wednesday, April 27, 2011 began, I knew it could be a crazy day. But never in a million years did I think it would be as phenomenal or deadly of historic proportions as it was.

As I mentioned in the last two blog posts, this event carried a high risk of tornadoes - even strong ones - with severe wind and hail probable. With this in mind, many meteorology students at Mississippi State thought of firing up their cars and smart phones and heading out to observe and document this force of nature. My girlfriend and broadcast meteorology undergraduate student Damaris Jaime and I planned on doing some storm chasing as well. Also, friend and storm chaser Jim Edds was in Starkville to position himself for chasing these storms. Damaris and I randomly ran into Jim at a McDonalds in eastern Starkville. Jim was watching the radar and chatting on the phone with friend and storm chaser Jeff Gammons, who was at his home in south Florida monitoring the weather for Jim. Jim offered us to follow him in his chase and we left Starkville. Since Jim and I are both licensed ham radio operators, we mostly communicated on the 2-meter band with our handheld radios.

Jim waiting for things to fire up.

We initially set out for west of Starkville, but Jeff then suggested we moved south for a supercell near Philadelphia, Miss. After being separated for a bit, we caught up with each other south of Macon, Miss. and attempted to position ourselves for this storm that was on its way to the area. After some position changing (see video below), we managed to find the rotating storm and got video and photos of it.

Storm to the south of Macon, Miss.

Damaris shoots video of the storm to the south of Macon, Miss.

We got word of a cell to the southwest of us that was on the way to Scooba, Miss. Sound familiar? We moved south and positioned ourselves at a gas station and faced our cars west to wait for the storm. We got a little rain, pea-sized hail and some really close lightning strikes before we saw rotation and a wall cloud.

Damaris noticed the rotation first. Jim then moved his car to the overhang at the gas station while we stayed put. Damaris shot some of the video as it moved from our 12 to 3 o'clock. Then I grabbed the camera and got what appeared to be a developing tornado roughly 600 feet to my north. Below is the video of the developing tornado.

After seeing that, we then proceeded westbound on State Road 16 to try to catch up with the storm. In the process of doing so, we witnessed three storm chase vehicles - one being a tour van. When we had clearing, we saw what looked like a tornado on the ground probably a couple of miles to our north. We only had a couple of seconds of video of it until we lost it in the trees and the rain. Jim said there was a north-south road we could take to catch up with it. We finally stopped in Geiger, Ala. - a town that was already hit by a tornado on April 15. A lot of the damage from that tornado remained. It was sad to think that this town could get hit again by another one. Luckily, it turned out not to be the case as nothing developed from that supercell that continued to move towards the northeast.

As we were leaving Geiger, we witnessed The Dominator, a vehicle designed for storm chasing in part by Reed Timmer, with the Discovery Channel support crew behind them. Of course, I incorrectly called it the TIV on the video. Sorry, Reed.

We then stopped on a long bridge (State Road 39) over a river near Gainesville, Ala. We could see the tornado far in the distance that was quickly becoming wrapped in rain. I was losing contrast, so I grabbed whatever photos I could while Damaris grabbed video. Below is the tornado with the last bit of video.

We then proceeded to follow Jim so we could get to I-20 and chase this supercell as it moved towards Tuscaloosa. Along the way, Jim went really far ahead of us and we lost communication via the ham radio. We ended up taking a wrong turn, getting lost temporarily, and winding up near I-20. By time we were able to look at the radar - thanks, AT&T for your crappy cellular service - the cell was 30 miles away. Because of the slow Internet speed, I was only able to pull up storm relative velocity on RadarScope. The radar scan showed rotation that really stood out. It looked like a bad storm. Still, we knew there was no way we could catch up with it and decided to call it a day. After running into a road block (tree on the middle of State Road 14), we went back on I-20 southbound to State Road 28, then took State Road 17 northbound (which paralleled the AL/MS state line) to try to get back home. Along the way, we saw a cool sunset which was a nice way to end a crazy chase day.

At this point, we did not know about the chaos that occurred in Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. We started getting phone calls regarding a massive power outage in the Golden Triangle area that most said could last days. We later found out a substation was taken out by a tornado to the north of Starkville that helped supply power to at least three counties.

Expecting basic services to be out in Starkville, Damaris and I stopped for food and gas in Macon. That's when I was able to check my Twitter feed and find out about the massive devastation that took place in Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. I was blown away from the photos I saw on Twitter. It looked really bad. Jim called me and said he missed the tornado, but witnessed a lot of damage. He grabbed some aftermath footage and interviewed a UPS driver who was caught in the mess (video of damage and interview with UPS driver).

It was eerie driving through Starkville with no street lights or power at homes and businesses. The Piggly Wiggly grocery store was the only place on the way back to Damaris' apartment that had backup power, and the store was packed with people.

I kept checking my Twitter feed on the phone during the night and continued to get a glimpse of what really happened. It was depressing to see all of the destruction and the ever increasing death count.

Three days later, I am amazed at the storms Damaris and I witnessed but saddened at the devastation that took place in parts of Mississippi and Alabama. This severe weather event exceeded what I expected. So far, at least 350 are dead across the south - 249 dead just in Alabama - according to Reuters. Damage from this outbreak could be between $2 billion and $5 billion. This could be the second deadliest outbreak in US history, topping the 1974 Super Outbreak.

For my second storm chase ever in Dixie Alley, I was able to see tornadoes and the damage they could cause to life and property. As a meteorology student, I find these storm fascinating but deadly. Events like this keep me motivated to continue studying this field and one day be able to effectively issue life saving warnings to the public.

My thoughts and prayers are with those affected by this outbreak.

UPDATE

Below is an image of the cell we chased from Scooba, Miss. to north of Gainesville, Ala. It turns out this supercell kept firing up tornadoes all the way to North Carolina. Insane. Thanks, David Cox for sharing this with me.

Brian Tang/David Cox, Facebook

High Risk of Severe Weather Today for the Starkville Area

Good morning, everyone. The early morning hours were pretty wild with a line of storms passing through and near the Golden Triangle area that causing some damage with a possible tornado to our north near Euproa. Unfortunately, this severe weather threat is not over. The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of northeastern Mississippi - including Starkville - under a high risk of severe weather today. This is something that isn't issued very often and should be taken very seriously.

A surface low is sitting over Arkansas with a cold front over eastern Texas. At 850 mb, winds are primarily out of the southwest between 50 and 60 knots - a very strong low-level jet. A 500-mb trough sits over Oklahoma and Texas with the SPC Mesoanalysis showing really good divergence aloft downstream (see below).

SPC/NOAA

At 300 mb, a jet streak can be found near the rear, NVA side of the jet stream.

Visible satellite imagery shows storms firing up near the the delta in Mississippi and Arkansas with storms to our north. Columbus Air Force Base radar shows strong to severe storms near Tupelo north to neat Iuka.

The models show the mid-level trough kicking through the area and becoming negatively tilted by roughly 0Z. The 850 mb winds will likely die down by 0Z, as well. The SPC has noted that temperatures have quickly rebounded this morning; therefore, further destabilization is expected to continue. The jet streak aloft, the approaching surface low, good diurnal heating, good moisture flow, and good dynamics spells trouble for the area.

The SPC has issued a mesoscale discussion which states a PDS tornado watch may be issued soon...

...A VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

There is a good chance that I will be chasing this afternoon across the state. As for everyone else, be on the lookout for rapidly deteriorating conditions. Keep an eye on my Twitter feed for the latest.

High Risk of Severe Weather for Parts of TX/AK/TN/MS

It was a wild weather day on Monday as tornadoes smashed across Arkansas, including Vilonia where the death count now stands at 4 (story from CNN). The same system may bring more storms to roughly the same area as Monday evening.

Currently at the surface, a 994-mb low sits over southern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa with cold front stretching through Missouri, Arkansas and Texas. Dewpoints in the 60s can be found along the lower Mississippi River delta with a good southerly surface winds of roughly 15 knots at best. At 850 mb, the winds veer a bit to more out of the southwest at 40 to 50 knots. SPC mesoanalysis at 700 mb show winds remaining mostly southwest but become more west in northern Mississippi. The 700 mb layer also gives a hint of little shortwaves embedded in the trough near the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The 500-mb mesoanalysis show a trough with over the central plains with what looks like embedded shortwaves - one over Illinois and the other near Colorado. The 300-mb map appears somewhat similar to the 500 mb map with respect to patterns.

Both the GFS and NAM indicate a strengthening 850 mb southerly jet bewtween 0Z and 9Z Wednesday over the southern states with the GFS firing up the jet at 0Z. This could aid in pumping more moisture and warm air during the overnight hours. The 500-mb NAM gives a hint of divergence over the delta, but notably over Arkansas while the GFS indicates the same thing. Since the NAM is a mesoscale model, it indicates more vort maxes due to the embedded shortwaves in the trough. The NAM is showing some pretty good helicity numbers late tonight and early morning over the delta region. The RUC is indicating a dryline boundary over eastern Texas. Storms could initiate from this line in the evening hours.

Based on the model runs, it appears as if the best chance of severe weather will be overnight starting in Texas near this dryline and would move further east and enter more of a favorable environment. In the SPC's discussion, some things aren't clear...

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS AS THEY PROGRESS INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE ACROSS AR WITH A RISK OF STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES...OR THEY MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN EITHER CASE...CONDITIONS ARE CLEARLY FAVORABLE A HIGH-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

How they know/don't know the evolution of the storms is out of my league of knowledge at this point. If any mets out there can explain that to me, I'm all ears.

The SPC has moved the high risk to include extreme northwestern Mississippi. Starkville is only under a slight risk category through 12Z Wednesday. The SPC highlights our area with a moderate risk for day two (12Z Wednesday to 12Z Thursday).

For now, a high risk for a tornado outbreak looks probable for parts of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas. People living in those areas need to take this event very seriously. Make sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio on standby tonight and keep tabs on the weather before you go to bed. Starkville looks to be in the red on Wednesday. I'll have a better handle on things as Wednesday approaches. Stay tuned to this blog and my Twitter feed for the latest.